,,,
. , , . , , , , .. , , , , .
. , , , () ( ) (, , - ..).
, ( , , - - , , - ).
, , , , .
, , , .
.
:
1. ;
2. , ;
3. , ;
4. ;
5. , ;
6. .
, .
: , , , , , , , .
, , , , , - , .
, , , , . 35 , , 17 .
1.
1.1 .
- . , , , . , , .
. , . , () , .
, . , , .. . - , , , , - [12, . 326].
, ( - ) [9, . 394].
:
1. , , , .
2. , , .
3. , -, , , .
4. , . , , , , , ..
5. , , , , , , , .
6. , , (, ..).
7. , , .
8. , , , , [8, . 391].
():
1. ( , , - ). , , , .
2. , , .
3. ( , , () , , , , ) [17, . 85].
- . . . : ; ; ; ; . , - [13, . 46].
:
) . .
) , . , , .
, . : ( , ); ( ); ( ); ; ( ). : ; ; ( ).
, , , . , , , , , , .
1.2
. , . , , .
, , , , , , , , , - - , .
, , , . . :
1) (), () , ;
2) (), () ;
3) , .
, - , :
1) , , , 10 . ;
2) , , , ;
3) , , , ;
4) , , , ( , , ).
. , - - , , , , , , .
1.3
- , , , - , , - , .
, , , , , , , .
, , : , ; , , , ; , , ; , , .
, , , . , , .
- , - - .
. . : , .. , ( ); , ( ).
2.
2.1
. , , , . .
, , . , , , , .
:
1) - ;
2) , ;
3) .
, , : , .
, , - [11, . 28]. : , ; , .
, . ( ). ( ) , .
: (t) (y). , . , .
. , , . , , . , , .
1
1 1.
) . .
1) 2002 2005 .. :
=, *100%
(. 2).
2) 2002 2005 . . (. 1.), 2002 2005 . (. 2.) 3.
3) : .
(êdi) :
êdi= dij dij-1 (2.2)
(Tpdi) :
Tpdi= dij/ dij-1 .100% (2.3)
dij () i j ; dij-1 () i j-1 .
(. 4).
. 4. 2003 . 2002 . 27,47% 168,30%, .. 68,30%; 27,27% 54,05%, .. 45,95%.
2004 . 2003 . 7,24% 89,30%, .. 10,70%; 7,24% 122,41%, .. 22,41%.
2005 . 2004 ., 12,17% 120,13%, .. 20,13%; 12,17% 69,23%, .. 30,77%.
4) , , .. .
:
êdi= din di1/ n-1 (2. 4)
din, di1 n ; n .
:
êdi= (12, 17 27, 47)/3 = -15, 3/3 = -5,10%
:
êdi= (-12,17 + 27,47)/3 = 15,3/3 = 5,10%
:
Tpdi= Ö Tpdn/ Tpd1×* 100%
Tpdn, Tpd1 n ; n .
:
Tpdi= Ö120, 13/168, 30*100% = Ö0,7138*100% =0,8937*100% = 89,37%
:
Tpdi= Ö69, 23/54, 05*100% =Ö1, 2809*100% = 1,0860*100% = 108,60%
) : ( ), ( ), ( ) 1% .
( ) :
êy=yi yi-1
ê y=yi y
( ) :
= yi/ yi-1 * 100%
= yi/ y*100%
( ) :
= 100%
= ᠖ 100%
1% :
|%| = 0, 01* yi-1
yi,yi-1, y , .
( 5) (. 6) .
5. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 91142,000 . . ( ), 176,74%, .. 76,74% 2002 .
2004 . 16 772,000 . ., 107,99%, .. 7,99% 2003 ., 2002 . 107914,000 . ., 190,86%, .. 90,86%.
2005 . 74520,000 . ., 132,87%, .. 32,87% 2004 ., 2002 . 182434, 000 . ., .. 2,5 153,61%.
. 6. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 76345,000 . ., 56,76%, .. 43,24% 2002 .
2004 . 48120,000 . . ( ), 148,02%, .. 48,02% 2003 ., 2002 . 28345,000 . ., 84,01%, .. 15,99%.
2005 . 34747,000 . ., 76,57%, .. 23,43% 2004 ., 2002 . 62972,000 . ., 64,33%, .. 35,67%.
. .
:
yi= a +bt
yi , ; a, b ; t .
, åt= 0. . yi 0, : -1, -2,-3, : 1, 2, 3, åt= 0. , , : -1 1, 2 : -3, -5, -7; 3, 5, 7, åt= 0.
:
=åy/n
b=åyt/åt2
y ;
n .
:
= (295318 + 310115 + 375007 + 414780)/4 = 1395220/4 = 348805,000 . .
b (. 7).
b= 423386/20 = 21169,300 . .
: y = 348805 + 21169,3t.
(. 3.) 8.
2
2 9.
) . .
1) , , 2002 2005 . (), . (. 10).
2) . (. 4.), (. 5.) . 11.
) : (y), (êy), (Tp) (T) .
(y) , :
y= åy/n
(êy) :
êy= yn-yo/n-1
(Tp) :
Tp= Öyn/ yo× 100%
(T) :
T=Tp-100%
y ; n .
(. 12).
3
3 . 13.
) 2002 2005 . (), 2.1. (. 14).
) : 2.2-2.3, (. 15).
. 15. 2003 . 2002 . 0,90%, 97,82%, .. 2,18%; 0,90%, 101,53%, .. 1,53%.
2004 . 2003 . 5,65%, 86,03%, .. 13,97%; 5,65%, 109,49%, .. 9,49%.
2005 . 2004 . 9,75%, 71,97%, .. 28,09%; 9,75%, 114,95%, .. 14,95%.
, , .. .
(2.4).
:
êdi= (-9, 75 + 0, 9)/(4-1) = -8,85/3 = -2,95%
:
êdi= (9, 75 0, 9)/(4-1) = 8,85/3 = 2,95%
2.5.
:
Tpdi= Ö71,97/97,82*100% = Ö0,7357*100% = 0,9028*100% = 90,28%
:
Tpdi= Ö114,95/101,53*100% = Ö1,1322*100% = 1,0422*100% =104,22%
) ( 16) (. 17) (. 18) 2.6-2.12.
16. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 1005,000 . . ( ), 102,79%, .. 2,79% 2002 .
2004 . 4943,000 . ., 86,63%, .. 13,37% 2003 ., 2002 . 3938,000 . ., 89,05%, . 10,95%.
2005 . 5843,000 . .,
81,76%, .. 18,24% 2004 ., 2002 . 9781,000 . ., 72,81%, .. 27,19%.
. 17. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 3429000 . ., 106,72%, .. 6,72% 2002 .
2004 . 5585000 . ., 110, 25%, . . 10, 25% 2003 ., 2002 . 9014000 . ., 117,66%, . . 17,66%.
2005 . 18368 . . ( ), 130,59%, .. 30, 59% 2004 ., 2002 . 27382 . ., 153,65%, .. 53,65%.
18. 2002 2005 .. : 2003 . 4434 . ., 105,1%, . . 5,1% 2002 .
2004 . 642 . ., 100,7%, . . 0, 70% 2003 ., 2002 . 5076 . ., 105,83%, . . 5,83%.
2005 . 12525 . . ( ), 113,6%, .. 13,60% 2004 ., 2002 . 17601,000 . ., 120,23%, .. 20,23%.
) : , , . 2.16-2.19.
(. 19).
4
4 . 20.
) , . , , , . (. 21).
, . 2.6-2.12. (. 22-25).
22. 2002 2005 . , : 2003 . 721,000, 95,24%, .. 4,76% 2002 .
2004 . 943,000, 106,54%, .. 6,54% 2003 ., 2002 . 222,000, 101,47%, .. 1,47%.
2005 . 3414,000 ( ), 122,22%, .. 22,22% 2004 ., 2002 . 3636,000, 124,02%, .. 24,02%.
23. 2002 2005 .. , : 2003 . 86,000, 83,33%, .. 16,67% 2002 .
2004 . 355,000 ( ), 182,56%, . . 82,56% 2003 ., 2002 . 269, 000, 152,13%, .. 52,13%.
2005 . 29,000, 103,69%, .. 3,69% 2004 ., 2002 . 298, 000, 157,75%, .. 57,75%.
. 24. 2002 2005 . , : 2003 . 66,000, 102,22%, .. 2,22% 2002 .
2004 . 1413,000 ( ), 146,48%, . . 46,48% 2003 ., 2002 . 1479,000, 149,73%, . . 49,73%.
2005 . 1445,000, 67,55%, .. 32,45% 2004 ., 2002 . 34,000, 101,14%, .. 1,14%.
. 25. 2002 2005 . , : 2003 . 17545,000, 101,47%, .. 1,47% 2002 .
2004 . 19460,000, 101,61%, .. 1,61% 2003 ., 2002 . 37005,000, 103,11%, .. 3,11%.
2005 . 21755,000 ( ), 101,77%, .. 1,77% 2004., 2002 . 58760,000, 104,94%, .. 4,94%.
) (. 26) (. 27) 2.1. .
2.2
.
, , .
: . , . , .
:
1) ;
2) .
. , - , .
, , . - . . , , , ..
, , . , .
, , 30 2005 . ( 28).
) , . :
n= 1 + 3, 322*lgN
N .
n= 1 + 3,322lg30 = 1+3,322*1, 477 =1+4,906 = 5,907, n= 6
, , 6 .
:
i = xmaxxmin/n
xmax, xmin ; n .
i = (57 20)/6 = 37/6 = 6, 167
i , i , .. i = 6, 2
:
I: 20 26,2;
II: 26,2 32,4;
III: 32,4 38,6;
IV: 38,6 44,8;
V: 44,8 51;
VI: 51 57,2.
, , , , , (. 29).
, ( ) ( ) , 6 . , , 2005 ., , . (. 30) (. 31) .
, , , , , . , - , (II: 26,2-32,4) , , . III: 32,4-38,6 ( ) , , .
) : , , : , , .
, . Ÿ :
= å/n
= (35+26+23+20+35+45+57+30+35+33+29+23+23+28+28+43+24 + 55+42+22+20+51+57+23+42+54+36+22+56+40):30 = 1057:30 = 35,2.
:
= åf/åx
f ( ) ; .
(. 32).
: = 1058,800:30 = 35,3.
(), , :
= + io × (fo fo-1)/[(fo - f o-1) + (fo - fo+1)]
; io ; fo, fo-1, fo+1 , .
I: 20-26,2 (10). :
= 20; io = 6,2; fo = 10; fo-1 = 0; fo+1 = 4.
= 20 + 6,2 * (10-0) / [(10-0) + (10-4)] = 20 + 6,2 *10 / (10+6) = 20 + 6,2 * 10/16=20+6,2*0,625=20+3,875=23,875.
. , :
= + i × (å1/2f S-1)/f
; i ; f ; S-1 ; f .
, å1/2f. 32. III: 32,4-38,6 , å1/2f, 19. :
= 32, 4; i = 6, 2; S-1= 14; f = 5.
= 32,4 + 6,2*(15-14)/5 = 32,4 + 6,2*1/5 = 32,4 + 6,2*0,200 = 32,4 + 1,240 = 33,640.
. 23,875 , , , . 33,640 , , , 33,640, 33,640.
) , , : , , .
:
d = å|x-x|f/åf
:
s2= å( )2f/åf
:
s = Ös2
:
V = s/x * 100%
x ; x ; f .
(. 33).
:
d = 292, 000/30 = 9,733
:
s2= 3742,180/30 = 124,739
:
s = Ö124, 739 = 11, 169
:
V = 11,169/35,2 × 100% = 0,3173*100% = 31,73%
. 9,733 , 2005 . . 11,169 , , 2005 . 24,031 (35,211,169) 46,369 (35,2+11,169). 31,73% < 33% , .
3. ()
3.1
. , , 30 . , , , , 3 (10 30) , , 20 26,2 ( ). 16 30 , ( ).
, , , 23,875 ( ); , 33,640, , , 33,640 ( , .. , = 33 ). , , 35,2.
3.2
2010 . , 2010 ., 2015 . , , . , , 2015 . , , , , , - , .
2006 . , . - .
, . , , . -I , , , . , 15% 3% , 10/90 60/40 .
3.3
, , , , .
- 2006-2008 ., 19 2006 . 38- ( ):
1) , ;
2) , ;
3) ;
4) ;
5) , , .
. :
1) ;
2) ;
3) , ( , , ), - ;
4) , .
.
, - .
: . . , .
, .
, , , . , 1930 . . .
, . . , , .
: , , .
, - - , , , , , , .
, .
.
.
: , .. , ( ) , ( ).
, . , , , . , . .
, , - 2006-2008 . . :
1) ;
2) , ;
3) .
1. . 12 1993 . ( ., 14. 10. 2005 . 6-)
2. 2010 . 30.03.2002 ., -576
3. ( , . 1552, 1556 . 1: 1 . 2008 . : . . -, 2007
4. 30.12.2001 195- ( 20.12.2001) (. 22.07.2005)
5. 2010 . ( 05.08.2005 ., 2473-7)
6. - 2006-2008 ., 19 2006 . 38-
7. 2015 . ( - , 15. 02. 2006 . 1)
8. . // , 2006. 6, 43-48 .
9. .. : . .: , , 2000. 247 .
10. - : , / . . . . 5- ., . . .: - , 2006. 984 .
11. : / . .. . .: , 2004. 544 .
12. .. //. 2006. 8, 107 109 .
13. 2007-2011 // . 2007. 2, 3 12 .
14. 2005 2006 // , 2006. 4, 3 22 .
15. . ./. ., 2006. 806 .
16. : ./ . . .. . 3- ., . - .: , 2001. 560 .
17. .., .. -- .//, 2006. 2, 84 86 .
18. .. . , 2- ., .: - -, 2002. 624 .
. ,
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