. , , ,

,,,

. , , . , , , , .. , , , , .

. , , , () ( ) (, , - ..).

, ( , , - - , , - ).

, , , , .

, , , .

.

:

1. ;

2. , ;

3. , ;

4. ;

5. , ;

6. .

, .

: , , , , , , , .

, , , , , - , .

, , , , . 35 , , 17 .


1.

 

1.1 .

- . , , , . , , .

. , . , () , .

, . , , .. . - , , , , - [12, . 326].

, ( - ) [9, . 394].

:

1. , , , .

2. , , .

3. , -, , , .

4. , . , , , , , ..

5. , , , , , , , .

6. , , (, ..).

7. , , .

8. , , , , [8, . 391].

():

1. ( , , - ). , , , .

2. , , .

3. ( , , () , , , , ) [17, . 85].

- . . . : ; ; ; ; . , - [13, . 46].

:

) . .

) , . , , .

, . : ( , ); ( ); ( ); ; ( ). : ; ; ( ).

, , , . , , , , , , .

1.2

. , . , , .

, , , , , , , , , - - , .

, , , . . :

1) (), () , ;

2) (), () ;

3) , .

, - , :

1) , , , 10 . ;

2) , , , ;

3) , , , ;

4) , , , ( , , ).

. , - - , , , , , , .

1.3

- , , , - , , - , .

, , , , , , , .

, , : , ; , , , ; , , ; , , .

, , , . , , .

- , - - .

. . : , .. , ( ); , ( ).


2.

 

2.1

. , , , . .

, , . , , , , .

:

1) - ;

2) , ;

3) .

, , : , .

, , - [11, . 28]. : , ; , .

, . ( ). ( ) , .

: (t) (y). , . , .

. , , . , , . , , .

1

1 1.

) . .

1) 2002 2005 .. :

=, *100%

(. 2).

2) 2002 2005 . . (. 1.), 2002 2005 . (. 2.) 3.

3) : .

(êdi) :

êdi= dij dij-1 (2.2)

(Tpdi) :

Tpdi= dij/ dij-1 .100% (2.3)

dij () i j ; dij-1 () i j-1 .

(. 4).

. 4. 2003 . 2002 . 27,47% 168,30%, .. 68,30%; 27,27% 54,05%, .. 45,95%.

2004 . 2003 . 7,24% 89,30%, .. 10,70%; 7,24% 122,41%, .. 22,41%.

2005 . 2004 ., 12,17% 120,13%, .. 20,13%; 12,17% 69,23%, .. 30,77%.

4) , , .. .

:

êdi= din di1/ n-1 (2. 4)

din, di1 n ; n .

:

êdi= (12, 17 27, 47)/3 = -15, 3/3 = -5,10%

:

êdi= (-12,17 + 27,47)/3 = 15,3/3 = 5,10%

:

Tpdi= Ö Tpdn/ Tpd1×* 100%

Tpdn, Tpd1 n ; n .

:

Tpdi= Ö120, 13/168, 30*100% = Ö0,7138*100% =0,8937*100% = 89,37%

:

Tpdi= Ö69, 23/54, 05*100% =Ö1, 2809*100% = 1,0860*100% = 108,60%

) : ( ), ( ), ( ) 1% .

( ) :

êy=yi yi-1

ê y=yi y

( ) :

= yi/ yi-1 * 100%

= yi/ y*100%

( ) :

= 100%

= ᠖ 100%

1% :

|%| = 0, 01* yi-1

yi,yi-1, y , .

( 5) (. 6) .

5. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 91142,000 . . ( ), 176,74%, .. 76,74% 2002 .

2004 . 16 772,000 . ., 107,99%, .. 7,99% 2003 ., 2002 . 107914,000 . ., 190,86%, .. 90,86%.

2005 . 74520,000 . ., 132,87%, .. 32,87% 2004 ., 2002 . 182434, 000 . ., .. 2,5 153,61%.

. 6. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 76345,000 . ., 56,76%, .. 43,24% 2002 .

2004 . 48120,000 . . ( ), 148,02%, .. 48,02% 2003 ., 2002 . 28345,000 . ., 84,01%, .. 15,99%.

2005 . 34747,000 . ., 76,57%, .. 23,43% 2004 ., 2002 . 62972,000 . ., 64,33%, .. 35,67%.

. .

:

yi= a +bt

yi , ; a, b ; t .

, åt= 0. . yi 0, : -1, -2,-3, : 1, 2, 3, åt= 0. , , : -1 1, 2 : -3, -5, -7; 3, 5, 7, åt= 0.

:

=åy/n

b=åyt/åt2

y ;

n .

:

= (295318 + 310115 + 375007 + 414780)/4 = 1395220/4 = 348805,000 . .

b (. 7).

b= 423386/20 = 21169,300 . .

: y = 348805 + 21169,3t.

(. 3.) 8.

2

2 9.

) . .

1) , , 2002 2005 . (), . (. 10).

2) . (. 4.), (. 5.) . 11.

) : (y), (êy), (Tp) (T) .

(y) , :

y= åy/n

(êy) :

êy= yn-yo/n-1

(Tp) :

Tp= Öyn/ yo× 100%

(T) :

T=Tp-100%

y ; n .

(. 12).

3

3 . 13.

) 2002 2005 . (), 2.1. (. 14).

) : 2.2-2.3, (. 15).

. 15. 2003 . 2002 . 0,90%, 97,82%, .. 2,18%; 0,90%, 101,53%, .. 1,53%.

2004 . 2003 . 5,65%, 86,03%, .. 13,97%; 5,65%, 109,49%, .. 9,49%.

2005 . 2004 . 9,75%, 71,97%, .. 28,09%; 9,75%, 114,95%, .. 14,95%.

, , .. .

(2.4).

:

êdi= (-9, 75 + 0, 9)/(4-1) = -8,85/3 = -2,95%

:

êdi= (9, 75 0, 9)/(4-1) = 8,85/3 = 2,95%

2.5.

:

Tpdi= Ö71,97/97,82*100% = Ö0,7357*100% = 0,9028*100% = 90,28%

:

Tpdi= Ö114,95/101,53*100% = Ö1,1322*100% = 1,0422*100% =104,22%

) ( 16) (. 17) (. 18) 2.6-2.12.

16. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 1005,000 . . ( ), 102,79%, .. 2,79% 2002 .

2004 . 4943,000 . ., 86,63%, .. 13,37% 2003 ., 2002 . 3938,000 . ., 89,05%, . 10,95%.

2005 . 5843,000 . .,

81,76%, .. 18,24% 2004 ., 2002 . 9781,000 . ., 72,81%, .. 27,19%.

. 17. 2002 2005 . : 2003 . 3429000 . ., 106,72%, .. 6,72% 2002 .

2004 . 5585000 . ., 110, 25%, . . 10, 25% 2003 ., 2002 . 9014000 . ., 117,66%, . . 17,66%.

2005 . 18368 . . ( ), 130,59%, .. 30, 59% 2004 ., 2002 . 27382 . ., 153,65%, .. 53,65%.

18. 2002 2005 .. : 2003 . 4434 . ., 105,1%, . . 5,1% 2002 .

2004 . 642 . ., 100,7%, . . 0, 70% 2003 ., 2002 . 5076 . ., 105,83%, . . 5,83%.

2005 . 12525 . . ( ), 113,6%, .. 13,60% 2004 ., 2002 . 17601,000 . ., 120,23%, .. 20,23%.

) : , , . 2.16-2.19.

(. 19).

4

4 . 20.

) , . , , , . (. 21).

, . 2.6-2.12. (. 22-25).

22. 2002 2005 . , : 2003 . 721,000, 95,24%, .. 4,76% 2002 .

2004 . 943,000, 106,54%, .. 6,54% 2003 ., 2002 . 222,000, 101,47%, .. 1,47%.

2005 . 3414,000 ( ), 122,22%, .. 22,22% 2004 ., 2002 . 3636,000, 124,02%, .. 24,02%.

23. 2002 2005 .. , : 2003 . 86,000, 83,33%, .. 16,67% 2002 .

2004 . 355,000 ( ), 182,56%, . . 82,56% 2003 ., 2002 . 269, 000, 152,13%, .. 52,13%.

2005 . 29,000, 103,69%, .. 3,69% 2004 ., 2002 . 298, 000, 157,75%, .. 57,75%.

. 24. 2002 2005 . , : 2003 . 66,000, 102,22%, .. 2,22% 2002 .

2004 . 1413,000 ( ), 146,48%, . . 46,48% 2003 ., 2002 . 1479,000, 149,73%, . . 49,73%.

2005 . 1445,000, 67,55%, .. 32,45% 2004 ., 2002 . 34,000, 101,14%, .. 1,14%.

. 25. 2002 2005 . , : 2003 . 17545,000, 101,47%, .. 1,47% 2002 .

2004 . 19460,000, 101,61%, .. 1,61% 2003 ., 2002 . 37005,000, 103,11%, .. 3,11%.

2005 . 21755,000 ( ), 101,77%, .. 1,77% 2004., 2002 . 58760,000, 104,94%, .. 4,94%.

) (. 26) (. 27) 2.1. .

2.2

.

, , .

: . , . , .

:

1) ;

2) .

. , - , .

, , . - . . , , , ..

, , . , .

, , 30 2005 . ( 28).

) , . :

n= 1 + 3, 322*lgN

N .

n= 1 + 3,322lg30 = 1+3,322*1, 477 =1+4,906 = 5,907, n= 6

, , 6 .

:

i = xmaxxmin/n

xmax, xmin ; n .

i = (57 20)/6 = 37/6 = 6, 167

i , i , .. i = 6, 2

:

I: 20 26,2;

II: 26,2 32,4;

III: 32,4 38,6;

IV: 38,6 44,8;

V: 44,8 51;

VI: 51 57,2.

, , , , , (. 29).

, ( ) ( ) , 6 . , , 2005 ., , . (. 30) (. 31) .

, , , , , . , - , (II: 26,2-32,4) , , . III: 32,4-38,6 ( ) , , .

) : , , : , , .

, . Ÿ :

= å/n

= (35+26+23+20+35+45+57+30+35+33+29+23+23+28+28+43+24 + 55+42+22+20+51+57+23+42+54+36+22+56+40):30 = 1057:30 = 35,2.

:

= åf/åx

f ( ) ; .

(. 32).

: = 1058,800:30 = 35,3.

(), , :

= + io × (fo fo-1)/[(fo - f o-1) + (fo - fo+1)]

; io ; fo, fo-1, fo+1 , .

I: 20-26,2 (10). :

= 20; io = 6,2; fo = 10; fo-1 = 0; fo+1 = 4.

= 20 + 6,2 * (10-0) / [(10-0) + (10-4)] = 20 + 6,2 *10 / (10+6) = 20 + 6,2 * 10/16=20+6,2*0,625=20+3,875=23,875.

. , :

= + i × (å1/2f S-1)/f

; i ; f ; S-1 ; f .

, å1/2f. 32. III: 32,4-38,6 , å1/2f, 19. :

= 32, 4; i = 6, 2; S-1= 14; f = 5.

= 32,4 + 6,2*(15-14)/5 = 32,4 + 6,2*1/5 = 32,4 + 6,2*0,200 = 32,4 + 1,240 = 33,640.

. 23,875 , , , . 33,640 , , , 33,640, 33,640.

) , , : , , .

:

d = å|x-x|f/åf

:

s2= å( )2f/åf

:

s = Ös2

:

V = s/x * 100%

x ; x ; f .

(. 33).

:

d = 292, 000/30 = 9,733

:

s2= 3742,180/30 = 124,739

:

s = Ö124, 739 = 11, 169

:

V = 11,169/35,2 × 100% = 0,3173*100% = 31,73%

. 9,733 , 2005 . . 11,169 , , 2005 . 24,031 (35,211,169) 46,369 (35,2+11,169). 31,73% < 33% , .


3. ()

 

3.1

. , , 30 . , , , , 3 (10 30) , , 20 26,2 ( ). 16 30 , ( ).

, , , 23,875 ( ); , 33,640, , , 33,640 ( , .. , = 33 ). , , 35,2.

3.2

2010 . , 2010 ., 2015 . , , . , , 2015 . , , , , , - , .

2006 . , . - .

, . , , . -I , , , . , 15% 3% , 10/90 60/40 .

3.3

, , , , .

- 2006-2008 ., 19 2006 . 38- ( ):

1) , ;

2) , ;

3) ;

4) ;

5) , , .

. :

1) ;

2) ;

3) , ( , , ), - ;

4) , .


.

, - .

: . . , .

, .

, , , . , 1930 . . .

, . . , , .

: , , .

, - - , , , , , , .

, .

.

.

: , .. , ( ) , ( ).

, . , , , . , . .

, , - 2006-2008 . . :

1) ;

2) , ;

3) .


1. . 12 1993 . ( ., 14. 10. 2005 . 6-)

2. 2010 . 30.03.2002 ., -576

3. ( , . 1552, 1556 . 1: 1 . 2008 . : . . -, 2007

4. 30.12.2001 195- ( 20.12.2001) (. 22.07.2005)

5. 2010 . ( 05.08.2005 ., 2473-7)

6. - 2006-2008 ., 19 2006 . 38-

7. 2015 . ( - , 15. 02. 2006 . 1)

8. . // , 2006. 6, 43-48 .

9. .. : . .: , , 2000. 247 .

10. - : , / . . . . 5- ., . . .: - , 2006. 984 .

11. : / . .. . .: , 2004. 544 .

12. .. //. 2006. 8, 107 109 .

13. 2007-2011 // . 2007. 2, 3 12 .

14. 2005 2006 // , 2006. 4, 3 22 .

15. . ./. ., 2006. 806 .

16. : ./ . . .. . 3- ., . - .: , 2001. 560 .

17. .., .. -- .//, 2006. 2, 84 86 .

18. .. . , 2- ., .: - -, 2002. 624 .

. ,

 

 

 

! , , , .
. , :