,,,
.
.
, , , , .
-, , - . , .
, . , . , , .
, :
;
;
( ) - ;
.
, .
, . , , , . , , ,
, , "" , , , , .
, 20 . . , . , .
, , :
;
, , , ;
, ;
, , / .
, , .
( ) - .
, , , ( ), , . . , , .
, , , - , () .
, . , .
- , :
, ;
() ;
, ;
(, ) ;
;
;
.
, " " . . , , .
, , . . , , , .
1.
.
:
;
, , .
, CALS- , , 20-25 . . 80- . - 60-70% (.. ), 1,5-2,5%.
- ( - 77%), - . . . , .
- () ( ), , . (, , , , ) , . ( , ), .
, - , . - -, , .
, , , - . , , , .
, - , .
- (), , , .
30%, - 15 %, 55-68 % - 45-50%. - , - .
. - . 10 , - . . 1998 . ( ), , . , , 50% 23% . , , - , - - - .
, , , , , .
: , 80 % , 76 % 13 % .
, 50% , 40% - , 25% .
( ) . 1990-1999 . 8,5% . , 70-80 .
1999 . 590 .3, 86% . (, , ) 72% .
( - ) 148,8 . ( 150 .), 693 41,7 ., 22 .
"" 68 17,3 .3, 10 13,5 .3 (78%).
, , , . - , 5-15 , 10 . , 10 , , , .
. , 70% ; 30%. 20-25 ( - 15 ). - . , 1990- 4 , - 2,5 ( 57% 80-85%). , , , , 1990- , .
. , 65% ( - 90%), .
, 2005 225 . ( 285 - 335 . ), . , , , 50% , , . , , .
, , . , , - ( , , ) , .
, , . - .
( ), , .
, , .
:
, ;
;
, , , ;
, - ;
;
, .
214 . 2,5 ., 150 . 220 1150 . 90% () , .
. , " " 72 (-). . , -, (), .
, , . , . 60%.
1990 . 213,3*106 214,1*106 . 1082,1*109 * 1990 . 827*109 * 1998 .
- “ ” , .
I . 1999 . “ ”. 2000 . “ ” , .
. 110 . 1- 1- , 2000 . 2- .
“ ”, , .
, 300500 , . , , , . .
, , . , , .
1999 . - . - , .
, , , 2005 . 5 . 5001150 . 5001150 “” .
, , .
-
.
-
.
,
,
.
,
.
,
.
.
,
.
-
.
.
,
1,5
,
.
15-16%, - 30-32%. - , . 1998-2005 285-370 . 340-425 . , 205-275 ..
. ( 9-11 . *), , , ( 1997 120 ).
, ( 2005 40% 2010 - 55% ), ( 1991-97. 6 , ), .
. - .
, .
:
( , );
( , ) ;
( , , );
( , , -);
.
.
:
( ) ( - 20-25 . );
( - 7-8 . );
( ) ( 10 . );
( - 7-8 . );
( - 8-9 . );
) ( - 20-25 . ).
70 . 15-20 , 380 . ( 1998). 70 . 27% 1 . , 8 . , 100 . 2.
. :
() , ;
;
;
;
.
20%. 10% 50-60 . 1998 (8-10 . ).
, . 1/5 - ( 20 . 40 .) 5-6%, 25-35 . (4-6 .).
, , ( , , ) , . , . , .
20 . - (), , (), (), ( ), ( ); - 39. , . 2005 . - , , 3,7-5%, 3,5-4,7%.
. , 1995-1996 . 12 ..
1998 . 6% ( 86% - ).
, ( ) , . .
( ) , , 60% . , , 17% . (1,6% ) (0,6%).
. , , , , . , ( ), .
- , . , - .
, , , , , .
. . (, ) ( 1% ).
. , , . ( 1997 . - 41,8%, 1998 . - 45,5%). , (), ( 30% ).
- . . .
- . , - . , . , , , , , , . - .
, , . , , ( ), , , , .
, , - .
2.
.
.
.
.
, .
3.
.
() . :
= (t t - t Kt) (1 + r/100)-t , .
: - ;
t - , t;
t - t, *; t - t- , ;
t - t; .r - , %.
:
t=Ny hy (1-k)(1-k), .
: Ny - , *;
hy - , ;
k , ;
k - , .
.1 :
1
|
, . - |
|
|
|||||
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||
, / |
1 | 0,26 | 0,27 | 0,28 | 0,28 | 0,257 | 0,30 | |
2 | 0,26 | 0,27 | 0,28 | 0,28 | 0,257 | 0,30 | ||
3 | 0,26 | 0,27 | 0,28 | 0,28 | 0,257 | 0,30 | ||
/ | , / | 1 | 26,00 | 23,00 | 23,69 |
24,40 |
25,13 | 25,89 |
2 | 26,00 | 22,00 | 22,66 | 23,34 | 24,04 | 24,76 | ||
3 | 26,00 | 26,00 | 26,78 | 27,58 | 28,41 | 29,26 | ||
/ | 1 | 257,00 | 263,43 | 270,01 | 276,76 | 283,68 | 290,77 | |
2 | 257,00 | 263,43 | 270,01 | 276,76 | 283,68 | 290,77 | ||
3 | 257,00 | 263,43 | 270,01 | 276,76 | 283,68 | 290,77 | ||
|
, / | 1 | 3920,00 | 4058,20 | 4179,95 | 4305,34 | 4434,50 | 4567,54 |
2 | 3920,00 | 4089,10 | 4211,77 | 4338,13 | 4468,27 | 4602,32 | ||
3 | 3920,00 | 4068,50 | 4190,56 | 4316,27 | 4445,76 | 4579,13 | ||
|
N, 103 |
1 | 4500 |
4500 |
4500 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 |
2 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | ||
3 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | 4500 | ||
... |
, / |
1 | 6300 | 6300 | 6294 | 6287 | 6281 | 6275 |
2 | 6300 | 6300 | 6294 | 6287 | 6281 | 6275 | ||
3 | 6300 | 6300 | 6294 | 6287 | 6281 | 6275 | ||
... |
, % |
1 | 6,0 | 5,7 | 5,7 | 5,7 | 5,7 | 5,7 |
2 | 6,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | ||
3 | 6,0 | 5,6 | 5,6 | 5,6 | 5,6 | 5,6 | ||
. |
, % |
1 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 |
2 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | ||
3 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | 8,5 | ||
|
, / | 1 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 |
2 | 0,32 | 0,30 | 0,30 | 0,30 | 0,30 | 0,30 | ||
3 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 | 0,32 | ||
|
, *106 |
1 | 24383,8 | 24461,7 | 24437,2 | 24412,8 | 24388,3 | 24364,0 |
2 | 24383,8 | 24643,2 | 24618,6 | 24594,0 | 24569,4 | 24544,8 | ||
3 | 24383,8 | 24487,6 | 24463,1 | 24438,6 | 24414,2 | 24389,8 | ||
|
, *106 |
1 | 6266,6 | 6443,8 | 6598,3 | 6756,5 | 6918,5 | 7084,4 |
2 | 6266,6 | 6491,6 | 6647,3 | 6806,7 | 6969,8 | 7136,9 | ||
3 | 6266,6 | 6450,6 | 6605,3 | 6763,7 | 6925,8 | 7091,9 | ||
|
, *106 / |
1 | 2028,74 | 2063,51 | 2123,29 | 2184,80 | 2248,10 | 2313,22 |
2 | 2028,74 | 1979,84 | 2037,19 | 2096,21 | 2156,94 | 2219,42 | ||
3 | 2028,74 | 2032,91 | 2091,80 | 2152,40 | 2214,76 | 2278,92 | ||
+. |
, *106 / |
1 | 859,68 | 762,91 | 785,01 |
807,75 |
831,15 | 855,23 |
2 | 859,68 | 735,16 | 756,45 | 778,37 | 800,92 | 824,12 | ||
3 | 859,68 | 863,33 | 888,35 | 914,08 | 940,56 | 967,81 | ||
|
, % |
1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
, *106 / |
1 |
529,20 |
547,86 | 564,29 | 581,22 | 598,66 | 616,62 | |
2 | 529,20 | 552,03 | 568,59 | 585,65 | 603,22 | 621,31 | ||
3 | 529,20 | 549,25 | 565,72 | 582,70 | 600,18 | 618,18 | ||
|
, *106 / |
1 | 683,52 | 674,86 | 694,52 | 714,76 | 735,58 | 757,02 |
2 | 683,52 | 653,40 | 672,45 | 692,05 |
712,21 |
732,97 | ||
3 | 683,52 | 689,10 | 709,18 | 729,84 | 751,10 | 772,98 | ||
|
, *106 / |
1 | 4101,13 | 4049,13 | 4167,12 | 4288,53 | 4413,49 | 4542,09 |
2 | 4101,13 | 3920,43 | 4034,69 | 4152,27 | 4273,29 | 4397,83 | ||
3 | 4101,13 | 4134,59 | 4255,05 | 4379,02 | 4506,60 |
4637,90 |
||
/ | 1 | 0,1682 | 0,1655 | |||||
2 | 0,1682 | 0,1591 | ||||||
3 | 0,1682 | 0,1688 |
2
, . - |
|
|||||||
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||
|
t t , 106 . |
1 | 6266,65 | 6443,81 | 6598,30 | 6756,50 | 6918,48 | 7084,35 |
2 | 6266,65 | 6491,64 | 6647,28 | 6806,65 | 6969,84 | 7136,94 | ||
3 | 6266,65 | 6450,64 | 6605,30 | 6763,66 | 6925,82 | 7091,87 | ||
|
, 106 |
1 | 4101,13 | 4049,13 | 4167,12 | 4288,53 | 4413,49 | 4542,09 |
2 | 4101,13 | 3920,43 | 4034,69 | 4152,27 | 4273,29 | 4397,83 | ||
3 | 4101,13 | 4134,59 | 4255,05 | 4379,02 | 4506,60 | 4637,90 | ||
|
, 106 |
1 | 7000,00 | |||||
2 | 7400,00 | |||||||
3 | 7200,00 | |||||||
Rt=-, 106 |
1 | -4834,49 | 2394,68 | 2431,19 | 2467,96 | 2504,99 | 2542,26 | |
2 | -5234,49 | 2571,22 | 2612,60 | 2654,38 |
2696,55 |
2739,11 | ||
3 | -5034,49 | 2316,05 | 2350,25 | 2384,64 | 2419,22 | 2453,97 | ||
. |
r |
1 | 1,00 | 0,91 | 0,83 | 0,75 | 0,68 | 0,62 |
2 | 1,00 | 0,91 | 0,83 | 0,75 | 0,68 | 0,62 | ||
3 | 1,00 | 0,91 | 0,83 | 0,75 | 0,68 | 0,62 | ||
. |
Rt*(1-)-t |
1 | -4834,49 | 2176,98 |
2009,25 |
1854,22 | 1710,94 | 1578,55 |
2 | -5234,49 | 2337,47 | 2159,17 | 1994,27 | 1841,78 | 1700,77 | ||
3 | -5034,49 | 2105,50 | 1942,35 | 1791,62 | 1652,36 | 1523,72 | ||
106 |
1 | 4495,44 | ||||||
2 | 4798,98 | |||||||
3 | 3981,07 | |||||||
Rt*(1-)-t , 106 |
1 | -4834,49 |
-2657,51 |
-648,26 | 1205,95 | 2916,90 | 4495,44 | |
2 | -5234,49 | -2897,02 | -737,85 | 1256,43 | 3098,21 | 4798,98 | ||
3 | -5034,49 | -2928,99 | -986,63 | 804,99 | 2457,35 | 3981,07 | ||
1= |
3,350 | |||||||
2= |
3,370 | |||||||
3= |
3,551 |
4.
.
- - , , . (5-7 ), . , . :
1, l- s- .
ls=
0, .
:
, s=l, n
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Ai | A | |||
1 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 7,2 | 0,209 | ||
2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5,2 | 0,151 | ||
3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7,6 | 0,221 | ||
4 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7,4 | 0,215 | ||
5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 0,203 | ||
34,4 |
Aij i- j- .
N ,
i ,
Aij = Aij/ N
1 = (8+8+9+4+7)/5=7,2
2 = (5+4+5+7+5)/5=5,2
3 = (7+6+8+8+9)/5=7,6
4 = (9+7+7+6+8)/5=7,4
5 = (7+8+6+9+5)/5=7,0
= i/ Ai
= 7,2/34,4=0,209
= 5,2/34,4=0,151
= 7,6/34,4=0,221
= 7,4/34,4=0,215
= 7,0/34,4=0,203
, . , . .
: , , .
. :
) ,
1,
=
0, .
) ,
1,
=
0, .
r ;
i(j) - .
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
||
1 |
1 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
2 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
2 |
0 | 1 | 1 |
3 |
0 | 0 | 1 |
3 |
0 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
||
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 |
2 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
2 |
1 | 1 | 0 |
3 |
1 | 0 | 1 |
3 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|||||
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2 |
1 | 1 | 0 | ||||
3 |
1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
.
Sr = Kl*Arl
Arl - , l- r .
Kl l- .
L ,
Sr r .
1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
1 | 0,209 | 0,000 | 0,209 | 1 | 0,151 | 0,151 | 0,151 |
2 | 0,209 | 0,209 | 0,209 | 2 | 0,000 | 0,151 | 0,151 |
3 | 0,000 | 0,000 | 0,209 | 3 | 0,000 | 0,000 | 0,151 |
1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
1 | 0,221 | 0,000 | 0,000 | 1 | 0,215 | 0,000 | 0,000 |
2 | 0,221 | 0,221 | 0,221 | 2 | 0,215 | 0,215 | 0,000 |
3 | 0,221 | 0,000 | 0,221 | 3 | 0,215 | 0,215 | 0,215 |
1 |
2 |
3 | |||||
1 | 0,203 | 0,000 | 0,000 | ||||
2 | 0,203 | 0,203 | 0,000 | ||||
3 | 0,203 | 0,203 | 0,203 |
:
k - .
1 | 2 | 3 | |
1 | 1,000 | 0,151 | 0,360 |
2 | 0,849 | 1,000 | 0,581 |
3 | 0,640 | 0,419 | 1,000 |
:
1,
=
0, .
, .
Sijl Sr,
Rr r- .
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 | 0 | 1 |
2 |
2 |
, .
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
||||||||||
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||
2 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||
3 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
||||||||||
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||
2 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
3 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
|||||||||||||
1 |
1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
2 |
0 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
3 |
1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
||||||||||
1 |
0,209 | 0,000 | 0,000 |
1 |
0,151 | 0,000 | 0,151 | ||||||||
2 |
0,209 | 0,209 | 0,209 |
2 |
0,000 | 0,151 | 0,000 | ||||||||
3 |
0,209 | 0,000 | 0,209 |
3 |
0,151 | 0,151 | 0,151 | ||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
||||||||||
1 |
0,221 | 0,000 | 0,000 |
1 |
0,215 | 0,000 | 0,215 | ||||||||
2 |
0,221 |
0,221 |
0,000 |
2 |
0,215 | 0,215 | 0,215 | ||||||||
3 |
0,221 | 0,000 | 0,221 |
3 |
0,000 | 0,000 | 0,215 | ||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
|||||||||||||
1 |
0,203 | 0,203 | 0,000 | ||||||||||||
2 |
0,000 | 0,203 | 0,203 | ||||||||||||
3 |
0,203 | 0,000 | 0,203 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
||||||
1 |
1,000 | 0,203 | 0,366 | |||||
2 |
0,645 |
1,000 | 0,628 | |||||
3 |
0,785 | 0,151 | 1,000 | |||||
|
||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
||||
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
3 | |||
2 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
3 |
1 | |||
3 |
1 | 0 | 1 |
2 |
2 |
, .
(
)
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|||
4495,44 | 4798,98 | 3981,07 | ||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
||||||
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
3 | |||
2 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
3 |
1 | |||
3 |
0 | 1 | 1 |
2 |
2 | |||
|
||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
||||||
1 |
3 | 0 | 0 | |||||
2 |
3 | 3 | 3 | |||||
3 |
2 | 1 | 3 | |||||
|
||||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
||||
1 |
1 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
3 | |||
2 |
1 | 1 | 1 |
3 |
1 | |||
3 |
1 | 0 | 1 |
2 |
2 |
, 2, .
5.
-
.
, - .
.
:
= (24643,2*106
*0,2634/
24383,8*106
*0,257/)
((24643,2*106*0,257/*0,27/+
+22/*24643,2*106
) (0,32/*
*24383,8*106
*0,26/+26/*24383,8*106
)) = 225,14*106
= (24643,2*106
*0,257/-24383,8*106
*0,257/)
((24643,2*106*0,257/
*0,26/+24643,2*106
*26/)
(0,32/*24383,8*106
*0,26/+
+26/*24383,8*106
)) = 66,908*106
:
= 1 0 - 0 0
= (24643,2*106
*0,257/
-
-24383,8*106
*0,257/)
=66,666*106
() - :
,
=(24643,2*106
*0,2634/-24643,2*106
*0,257/
)
((24643,2*106*0,257/*0,27/+
+22/*24643,2*106
)- (24643,2*106*0,257/
*0,26/+24643,2*106
*26/)
= 158,232*106
() - :
,
=24643,2*106 *0,2634/ - 24643,2*106 *0,257/ = =158,333*106
: 0 (1) - () ;
0 (1) - () ;
Z0 (Z1) - () ( );
0 (1) - () ( ).
6.
- , , .
, , .
/ |
|
. . - |
|
|
1 |
2 |
|||
1 |
|
N, 103 |
4500,00 |
4500,00 |
2 |
|
, / |
6300,00 |
6300,00 |
3 |
/ |
, % |
6,00 |
5,00 |
4 |
|
, % |
8,50 |
8,50 |
5 |
|
, / |
0,32 |
0,30 |
6 |
|
, / |
0,26 |
0,27 |
7 |
|
, / |
26,00 |
22,00 |
8 |
|
/ |
257,00 |
263,43 |
9 |
|
, / |
3920,00 |
4089,10 |
10 |
|
, % |
10,00 |
10,00 |
:
t : |
t=N h (1 - )(1-) |
|||||
t : |
= t |
|||||
t: |
1 = t t |
|||||
t: |
t = btt + 3t |
|||||
t+1 t : |
= bt+1Ct+t |
|||||
t: |
t=t+t |
|||||
. . - |
||||||
1 |
2 |
|||||
t |
10*6 * |
24383,835 |
24643,2375 |
|||
10*6 \ |
6266,6456 |
6491,644838 |
||||
't |
\** |
0,1681907 |
0,159087373 |
|||
' |
\** |
0,1629907 |
- |
|||
t |
10*6 \ |
4101,1339 |
3920,427914 |
|||
t=t+t |
10*6 \ |
18522 |
19320,9975 |
|||
' |
\** |
0,7596016 |
0,784028377 |
|||
d |
10*6 \ |
66,6710585 |
||||
d |
10*6 \ |
0,06794934 |
||||
1,16103E-05 |
||||||
d |
10*6 \ |
66,60310916 |
||||
0,01138023 |
||||||
d |
0,001019173 |
|||||
d |
0,998980827 |
|||||
d |
10*6 \ |
158,4289911 |
||||
d |
10*6 \ |
66,6710585 |
||||
d |
10*6 \ |
225,1000496 |
||||
d |
0,000301863 |
|||||
d |
0,29588225 |
|||||
d |
0,703815887 |
|||||
d |
1 |
4% . .
.
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
. | / | . | |||||
24383,8 | 24643,2 | 0,16819 | 0,15909 | 0,16299 | 18533 |
19321 |
, , .
: t , t-1 - t- (t-1) ;
St, St-1 - t- (t-1) ;
t - t- ;
t, t-1 - t- (t-1) ;
= (1+ ) - ;
k - ;
- ;
- 5- .
. , , , . : ; ; ; ; ; ; .
. .
() . , . .
( ), , . , () .
, . , , , , . :
= /(2 +2)
= 67,943/(1590,87 +0,1*19320) = 1,161.
, , . , , , . , , - , . . , .
= / (2 + 2)
=66,603/(1590,87+0,1*19320) = 0,0113.
, ( ) . . - . , , . . :
= [(1 ) - (2 1)]2 ,
= (0,1682 0,163)24643,238- 0,1(0,784-0,759)24643,238=0,0679..
=( 1 )/ (2 1)=(0,1682-0,163)/(0,784-0,759)=0,208
- .
:
=1(21)- 1 (2 1 )-1(2-1) ,
=
0,257(24643,238-24383,8)
0,1682*(24643,238-24383,8)-
-0,1*0,759*(24643,238-24383,8)=
66,603 ..
= (1-1)/1=(0,257-0,1682)/0,759=0,117
,
= [(2 1) - (2 - )]2.
=(263,43257)/1000*24643,238-(0,1687-0,1670)*24643,238=158,429..
, .. - ,
==1(2 1)-(2 -11)-( 22-11) =+
=0,26* (24643,238-24383,8)+(0,1682*24383,8 0,163*24643,238) + 0,1* (0,76*24383,8-0,784*24643,238) = 66,671 ..
= (1(2 1) - (2 -11))/( 22-11)= (0,26* (24643,238-24383,8)+(0,1682*24383,8 0,163*24643,238))/ (0,784*24643,238-0,76*24383,8)= =0,193
, - . - , - . , . , . , - .
. , , , :
d=/
d=0,0679/66,671 = 0,001
,
d= /
d= 66,603/66,671 = 0,999
- , . . , (). , ( ). , , , , .. . , , .. . - .
, , , , , , , . :
= + + = + ,
=0,0679+66,603+158,429=225,1 ..
:
d = /; d = / ; d = / .
d =0,0679/225,1=0,0003; d=66,603/225,1=0,2959; d=158,429/225,1 =0,7038
.
:
7.
.
. .
1. ()
r, :
r = + +
: 10% ; : 2% ; : 8% :
r = (10%+2%+8%)/100% = 0,2
:
t |
t* |
t |
. t |
(1+0,2)-t |
. t |
. t |
Rt*(1+0,2)-t |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
0 |
6,267 |
4,101 |
7,400 |
1,000 |
6,267 |
11,501 |
-5,234 |
-5,234 |
1 |
6,492 |
3,920 |
- |
0,833 |
5,410 |
3,267 |
2,143 |
-3,092 |
2 |
6,647 |
4,035 |
- |
0,694 |
4,616 |
2,802 |
1,814 |
-1,278 |
3 |
6,807 |
4,152 |
- |
0,579 |
3,939 |
2,403 |
1,536 |
0,259 |
4 |
6,970 |
4,273 |
- |
0,482 |
3,361 |
2,061 |
1,300 |
1,559 |
5 |
7,137 |
4,398 |
- |
0,402 |
2,868 |
1,767 |
1,101 |
2,660 |
|
- |
- |
7,400 |
- |
26,461 |
23,801 |
2,660 |
2,660 |
, T=6 2660*106 ., .. . .
2. ()
, . , . , .. = 0.
r . , r 0,2 < 0 0,05 (5%). .
t |
t* |
t |
. t |
(1+0,3)-t |
. t |
. t |
Rt*(1+0,3)-t |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
0 |
6,267 |
4,101 |
7,400 |
1,000 |
6,267 |
11,501 |
-5,234 |
-5,234 |
1 |
6,492 |
3,920 |
- |
0,769 |
4,994 |
3,016 |
1,978 |
-3,257 |
2 |
6,647 |
4,035 |
- |
0,592 |
3,933 |
2,387 |
1,546 |
-1,711 |
3 |
6,807 |
4,152 |
- |
0,455 |
3,098 |
1,890 |
1,208 |
-0,503 |
4 |
6,970 |
4,273 |
- |
0,350 |
2,440 |
1,496 |
0,944 |
0,442 |
5 |
7,137 |
4,398 |
- |
0,269 |
1,922 |
1,184 |
0,738 |
1,179 |
|
- |
- |
7,400 |
- |
22,654 |
21,475 |
1,179 |
1,179 |
t |
t* |
t |
. t |
(1+0,4)-t |
. t |
. t |
Rt*(1+0,4)-t |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
0 |
6,267 |
4,101 |
7,400 |
1,000 |
6,267 |
11,501 |
-5,234 |
-5,234 |
1 |
6,492 |
3,920 |
- |
0,714 |
4,637 |
2,800 |
1,837 |
-3,398 |
2 |
6,647 |
4,035 |
- |
0,510 |
3,391 |
2,059 |
1,333 |
-2,065 |
3 |
6,807 |
4,152 |
- |
0,364 |
2,481 |
1,513 |
0,967 |
-1,098 |
4 |
6,970 |
4,273 |
- |
0,260 |
1,814 |
1,112 |
0,702 |
-0,396 |
5 |
7,137 |
4,398 |
- |
0,186 |
1,327 |
0,818 |
0,509 |
0,114 |
|
- |
- |
7,400 |
- |
19,917 |
19,803 |
0,114 |
0,114 |
t |
t* |
t |
. t |
(1+0,5)-t |
. t |
. t |
Rt*(1+0,2)-t |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
0 |
6,267 |
4,101 |
7,400 |
1,000 |
6,267 |
11,501 |
-5,234 |
-5,234 |
1 |
6,492 |
3,920 |
- |
0,667 |
4,328 |
2,614 |
1,714 |
-3,520 |
2 |
6,647 |
4,035 |
- |
0,444 |
2,954 |
1,793 |
1,161 |
-2,359 |
3 |
6,807 |
4,152 |
- |
0,296 |
2,017 |
1,230 |
0,786 |
-1,573 |
4 |
6,970 |
4,273 |
- |
0,198 |
1,377 |
0,844 |
0,533 |
-1,040 |
5 |
7,137 |
4,398 |
- |
0,132 |
0,940 |
0,579 |
0,361 |
-0,679 |
|
- |
- |
7,400 |
- |
17,882 |
18,561 |
-0,679 |
-0,679 |
, 41,5% . , , (20%). .
3.
( ) :
= t - / (t+1- t),
: t - , t < 0, t+1 > 0.
=3 - (-737,85*106 ) / (1256,43*106 -737,85*106 ) =3,37
() :
=
/
=
=26461*106
/23801*106
=1,112*106
>1, .
4.
, , - . , ( , , ) 10% , > 0.
5
|
||||
0% |
2% |
10% |
15% |
|
|
26,461 |
25,932 |
23,815 |
23,339 |
|
16,401 |
16,401 |
16,401 |
16,401 |
. |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
2,660 |
2,131 |
0,014 |
-0,463 |
, 10% >0. , 10 % = 14 .
. .
. |
|||||
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
40% |
|
|
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
|
16,401 |
16,401 |
16,401 |
16,401 |
16,401 |
. |
7,400 |
8,140 |
8,880 |
9,620 |
10,360 |
2,660 |
1,920 |
1,180 |
0,440 |
-0,300 |
, , 35,95% ( = 0). , 10% - = 1880*106 .
. .
|
|||||
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
20% |
|
|
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
|
16,401 |
17,221 |
18,041 |
18,861 |
19,681 |
. |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
2,660 |
1,840 |
1,020 |
0,200 |
-0,620 |
, , 16,22% 0. , 10% =1020 .
. .
|
||||
10% |
20% |
30% |
40% |
|
|
26,461 |
22,654 |
19,917 |
17,882 |
|
16,401 |
14,075 |
12,403 |
11,161 |
. |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
2,660 |
1,179 |
0,114 |
-0,679 |
, 31,5% ( = 0). , =20% =1179 . .
|
||||
8% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
|
|
26,461 |
22,036 |
19,462 |
17,538 |
|
16,401 |
13,697 |
12,126 |
10,952 |
. |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
2,660 |
0,939 |
-0,063 |
-0,813 |
, 19,55% ( = 0). , = 10% =939 . .
|
||||
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
|
|
26,461 |
23,815 |
21,169 |
18,523 |
|
16,401 |
16,401 |
16,401 |
16,401 |
. |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
2,660 |
0,014 |
-2,632 |
-5,278 |
, 10,05% ( = 0). , =10% =14 . .
|
|||||
0% |
10% |
20% |
30% |
40% |
|
|
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
26,461 |
|
16,401 |
17,225 |
18,049 |
18,873 |
19,697 |
. |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
7,400 |
2,660 |
1,836 |
1,012 |
0,188 |
-0,636 |
, 32,45% ( = 0). , 10% =1836 . .
:
|
|
( ), % |
10%- ( ) |
, ./ |
26,461 |
10,05 |
|
, .. |
7,400 |
35,95 |
|
, ./ |
16,401 |
16,22 |
|
, % |
10 |
31,5 |
|
, % |
8 |
19,55 |
|
, / |
10,05 |
||
, / |
32,45 |
.
. , , . .
" " , . . - , , , - .
, .
.
- - , , . (5-7 ), . , . , . , . .
, .
, - .
, , . .
. , . , .
.
" " /.: .., ... , 2000 .
. / . .., .., ...- .-, 1997.
.., .. // , 1 2000 .
., . // , 9 1999 .
. // , 5 2000 .
5 2000 .
8 2000 .
1 2000 .
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