,,,
-
:
:
. -062
..
:
..
, 2009.
1.
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2.
2.1 " ""-"
2.2
2.3
. , , , . . - , . .
, .
:
- ;
- ;
- ;
-
50 , - 9, - 5, - 41. 18 . " ""-", , , , , , . : , .
1.
1.1
" ""-" ( 1.1) [16], , , , ( ), ( ).
1.1 : 2075564 . ., 110,06 % , 9880,85 . . 42,40% 71,41% . 1768698 . ., 4189,33 . . 306866 .. 876018 .., 5691,52 ..
2007 42,58%, 64,09%. 12208 . . 20,90% 322907 . . 3106,99 . . - 7549,93 %, 1937841 . . 84,74% 356515 . . , , (31,44% 10,54% ), .
(5691,52 ..), - 256,67 . .
. :
1) (F)
F = F + R + Z, . (1.1)
- (. 190);
- ( 12 ) (. 230);
- (. 216).
F() = 418933 + 1634 + 3396 = 423963 . .
F() = 2187631 + 3820 + 8219 = 2199670 . .
2) () ()
= - R - Z, . (1.2)
- .
() = 569152 1634 -3396 = 564122 . .
() = 876018 3820 8219 = 863979 . .
1.1 - " ""-"
| , . . | , | |||||||||
| % | ||||||||||
| , | , | , % | , % | , . . | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
|
|
||||||||||
| 1. | 418933 | 2187631 | 42,40 | 71,41 | 1768698 | 29,01 | 422,19 | 85,22 | 4189,33 | |
| 2. | 569152 | 876018 | 57,60 | 28,59 | 306866 | -29,01 | 53,92 | 14,78 | 5691,52 | |
|
|
988085 | 3063649 | 100,00 | 100,0 | 2075564 | - | 210,06 | - | 9880,85 | |
|
|
||||||||||
| 3. | 310699 | 322907 | 31,44 | 10,54 | 12208 | -20,90 | 3,93 | 0,59 | 3106,99 | |
| 4. | 25667 | 1963508 | 25,98 | 64,09 | 1937841 | 38,11 | 7549,93 | 93,36 | 256,67 | |
| 420719 | 777234 | 42,58 | 25,37 | 356515 | -17,21 | 84,74 | 17,18 | 4207,19 | ||
| 988085 | 3063649 | 100,00 | 100,00 | 2075564 | - | 210,06 | - | 9880,85 | ||
3) (Z)
Z = Z + Z - Z, . (1.3)
- (. 210);
- (. 220);
- (. 215).
Z() = 213055 + 339 3396 0 = 209998 . .
Z() = 311598 + 1046 8219 0 = 304425 . .
4) (R)
R = R + Z + R , . (1.4)
- ( 12 ) (. 240);
- (. 270).
R() = 347594 + 0 + 0 = 347594 . .
R() = 544558 + 0 + 0 = 544558 . .
5) ()
= + ,, . (1.5)
- (. 250);
- (. 260).
() = 500 + 6030 = 6530 . .
() = 0 + 14966 = 14966 . .
6) ()
= + + + R, . (1.6)
- (. 490);
- () (. 630);
- (. 640);
- (. 650).
() = 310699 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 310699 . .
() = 322907 + 0 + 4 + 0 = 322911 . .
7) ()
= f + f ( + + R), . (1.7)
- (. 590);
- (. 690).
() = 256667 + 420719 (0+0+0) = 677386 . .
() = 1963508 + 777234 (0+4+0) = 2740738 . .
8) () (. 590)
= 256667 . .; = 1963508 . .
9) (R) (1.8)
R() = R + R, .
R() = 352390 + 0 = 352390 . .
R = 777230 + 0 = 777230 . .
1.2
, 2075564 .. 210,06%, 1775707 .. (418,84%) () 299857. .( 53,15%), 28,89 , 28,89 .
17,40 , 196964 .. 56,66%. 94427 . . 44,97%, 21,25% 9,94% .. 11,32 , 8436 . . 129,19% .
1.2 - " ""-"
| , . . | , % | ||||||||
| , | , | , % | , % | % , . . | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 1. | 988085 | 3063649 | 100,00 | 100,00 | 2075564 | 0,00 | 210,06 | 100,00 | 9880,85 |
| 1.1. | 423963 | 2199670 | 42,91 | 71,80 | 1775707 | 28,89 | 418,84 | 85,55 | 4239,63 |
| 1.2. () | 564122 | 863979 | 57,09 | 28,20 | 299857 | -28,89 | 53,15 | 14,45 | 5641,22 |
| 1.2.1. | 209998 | 304425 | 21,25 | 9,94 | 94427 | -11,32 | 44,97 | 4,55 | 2099,98 |
| 1.2.2. | 347594 | 544558 | 35,18 | 17,77 | 196964 | -17,40 | 56,66 | 9,49 | 3475,94 |
| 1.2.3. | 6530 | 14966 | 0,66 | 0,49 | 8436 | -0,17 | 129,19 | 0,41 | 65,3 |
|
1. |
988085 | 3063649 | 100,00 | 100,00 | 2075564 | 0,00 | 210,06 | 100,00 | 9880,85 |
| 1.1. | 310699 | 322911 | 31,44 | 10,54 | 12212 | -20,90 | 3,93 | 0,59 | 3106,99 |
| 1.2. | 677386 | 2728043 | 68,56 | 89,05 | 2050657 | 20,90 | 302,73 | 98,80 | 6773,86 |
| 1.2.1. | 256667 | 1963508 | 25,98 | 64,09 | 1706841 | 38,11 | 665,00 | 82,24 | 2566,67 |
| 1.2.2. | 68329 | 0 | 6,92 | 0,00 | -68329 | -6,92 | -100,00 | -3,29 | - 683,29 |
| 1.2.3. | 352390 | 777230 | 35,66 | 25,37 | 424840 | -10,29 | 120,56 | 20,47 | 3523,9 |
, 2075564 .. 2050657 .. 12212 . . 3,93%. 1706841.. 665,00% 38,11 . , 2007 " ""-" 100% " ", . 1,482 . .
. 424840 . . 120,56, 10,29 .
, , , 20,90 , .
, 1.3.
, 167450 .. ( ), 98543 . ., 1699993, . .
1.3 " ""-"
| , . . | , . . |
|
||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|
| 1. |
|
|||
|
||||
| 1. (. 120) | 167450 | 1. (. 410 1) | 0 |
|
|
2. : 6919636-5219643 = 1699993 : 213055-311598 = 98543 |
98543 | 2. (. 470 1) | 12208 |
|
|
3. 10 30 % (14996-6030)/563152*100%=1,58% |
- | 3. (. 430 1) | 0 |
|
|
4. 20 40 % (. 215 1) / (. 290 1) |
4. (. 640 1) | 4 |
|
|
| 265993 | 12208 |
|
||
|
||||
| 1. 30 % (.260 1) / (.290 1) |
1,58 - |
1. | 424840 |
|
|
2. 40 % (.230 1) (.240 1) / .290 1 (2186+196964)/569152 = 34,99% |
2. (. 510 1+. 610 1) | 1700813 |
|
|
| 3. (. 510 1 + . 610 1 + . 620 1 + . 660 1) | 2057324 |
|
||
| - | 4182977 |
|
||
| 2. |
|
|||
|
||||
| (. 211 1) (.0102) : 4324 : 1699993 |
1. (. 620 1) 777230-352390=424840 |
|
||
|
2. (. 213 1) 2278-8153 = - 5875 |
- 5875 |
2. (. 510 1 + . 610 1) 1950813-(250000+68309) = 1632484 |
|
|
|
3. (. 216 1) 8219-3396 = 5523 . . |
3. (. 510 1 + . 610 1 + . 620 1 + . 660 1) (1950813+0+0)-(250000+68329+0) = 1632484 |
|||
|
4. (. 214 1) 295795-200524 = 95271 |
||||
|
5. 20 40 % (. 230 1 + . 240 1) / . 290 1 * 100 (2186+196964)/569152 = 34,99% |
||||
| -5875 | - | |||
|
1. (. 262 1) 10 % (. 290 1) (14996-6030)/569152= 1,57 |
1. (. 470 1) 89662-77454= 12208 |
|||
|
2. (. 211 1) (. 010 2) : 5306-982 = 4324 : 5219643-6919636 = - 699993 |
- |
2. (. 410 1) 3401-3401=0 |
- | |
|
3. (. 430 1) 229674-229674=0 |
- | |||
| - | - | |||
12208 .. ( 4 ..). 424840 . ., 1700813 .., 2057324 . .
5875 . . .
.
1.2
:
Ko= E /Z, (1.9)
E - ,
Z - .
:
= -113264 / 209998 = - 0,539
:
= -1876763 / 304425 = - 6,165
:
= ET/Z, (1.10)
:
= -280560 / 209998 = - 1,336
:
= -2112925 / 304425 = - 6,941
, , , .
( ):
= /, (1.11)
,
.
:
= 310699/988085 = 0,314
:
= 322907/3063649 = 0,105
( ) 0,314 0,105, 2,18 8,49, .
():
/= /, (1.12)
.
:
/=677386 /310699 = 2,18
:
/= 2740738 /322911 = 8,49
( 2,18 8,49), .
:
/ = /F, (1.13)
,
F .
:
/ = 564122/423963 = 1,331
/ = 863979/2199670 = 0,393
, , (/ ³ 0,5), .
:
= / , (1.14)
:
= -113264/310699 = -0,365
= -1876763/322907 = -5,812
-0,36 -5,81, .
= F/, (1.15)
:
= 423963 / 310699 = 1,365
:
= 2199670 / 322911 = 6,812
,
+ = 1,365 0,365 =1
+ = 6,812 5,812 =1
(103,93%), (518,83%), , .
:
= / (+ ), (1.16)
- .
:
= 256667 / (310699 +256667) = 0,764
:
= 1963508 / (322911 + 1963508) = 0,859
0,764 0,859, .
= (Fo+ F + Zc + Z)/, (1.17)
F - ;
F - ;
Zc , ;
Z ( ).
:
= (392167 + 6839 + 982 + 8153) / 988085 = 0,413
:
= (559617 + 1490022 + 5306 + 22783) / 3063649 = 0,678
0,41306 0,678.
1.4.
:
= 1 + 2 + + 1// + + (1.18)
:
= 1 + 2*0,764+ 0,314 + 1/2,18+ 0,413 + 1,365 = 5,079
:
= 1 + 2*0,859+ 0,105 + 1/8,49 + 0,678 + 6,812 = 10,341
:
∆ = / -1 (1.19)
∆ = 10,341 / 5,079 1 = 1,036
103,6 %.
1.4 -
| 1. () | - 1,336 | - 6,941 |
| 2. () | 0,314 | 0,105 |
| 3. (/) | 2,18 | 8,49 |
| 4. (/) | 1,331 | 0,393 |
| 5. () | -0,365 | -5,812 |
| 6. () | 1,365 | 6,812 |
| 7. () | 0,764 | 0,859 |
| 8. () | 0,413 | 0,678 |
1.3
()
() .
.
.
1 . (.250+.260).
1 = , (1.20)
1 = 6530 . .
1 = 14996 . .
2 (.215), (.240) (.270) (.215+.240+.270).
2 = , . (1.21)
2 = 0 + 347594 + 0 = 347594 . .
2 = 0 + 544558 + 0 = 544558 . .
3 , , (.210+.220.215.216+.135+.140).
3 =, . (1.22)
3 = 213055 + 339 0 3396 + 0 + 6839 = 216837 . .
3 = 311598 + 1046 0 8219 + 0 + 1490022 = 1794447 . .
4 I , (.135), (.140), (.216), (.230).
4 = (.190.135.140+.216+.230).
4 = , . (1.23)
4 = 418933 0 6839 + 3396 + 1634 = 417124 . .
4 = 2187631 0 1490022 + 8219 + 3820 = 709648 . .
:
1 . (.620+.660).
1 = , . (1.24)
1 = 352390 . .
1 = 777230 . .
2 (.610).
2 = , . (1.25)
2 = 68329 . .
2 = 0 . .
3 , (.590).
3 =, . (1.26)
3 = 256667 . .
3 = 1963508 . .
4 (.490+.630+.640+650).
4 = 310699 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 310699 . .
4 = 322907 + 0 + 4 + 0 = 322911. .
, :
(1.27)
:
6530 < 352390,
347594 > 68329,
216837 < 256667,
417124 > 322911,
14996 < 777230,
544558 > 0,
1794447 < 1963508,
709648 > 322911,
, , , , , .
1.5
1.5 -
| . , . . | . , . . | . , . . | . , . . | (+) (-), . . | |||
| 1. | 6530 | 14996 | 1. | 352390 | 777230 | 345860 | 762234 |
| 2. | 347594 | 544558 | 2. | 68329 | 0 | -279265 | -544558 |
| 3. | 216837 | 1794447 | 3. | 256667 | 1963508 | 1746671 | 169061 |
| 4. | 417124 | 709648 | 4. | 310699 | 322911 | -94213 | -386737 |
| 988085 | 3063649 | 988085 | 3063649 | 0 | 0 | ||
1.5, , , , . , , .
. .
, () :
1+2 1+2 (1.28)
:
6530 + 347594 < 352390 + 68329
:
14996 + 544558 < 777230 + 0 -
, :
33 (1.29)
:
216837 < 256667
:
1794447 < 1963508 -
, , .
:
1. .
(1.30)
: = 6530/352390 = 0,018
: = 14996/777230 = 0,019
, (0,2-0,5), . , .
2. ( ).
= ( 1+2)/(1+2) (1.31)
: = (6530 + 347594)/( 352390 + 68329) = 0,84
: = (14996 + 544558)/( 777230 + 0) = 0,72
, 0,1 , .
3. ( ).
= (1+2+3) / (1+2+3) (1.32)
:
= (6530 + 347594 + 216837)/(352390 + 68329 + 256667) = 0,24
:
= (14996 + 544558 + 1794447)/(777230 + 0 + 1963508) = 0,86
, 2 , , . , . , , , 1.
, , . , - .
1.4
(Q) (), , .
(1.33)
= 5219643 4853766 = 365877 . .
= 6919636 6448170 = 471466 . .
365877 . . 471466 . ., .
() () (∑3) (∑3). .
(1.34)
= 365877 272414 37353 = 56110 . .
= 471466 339756 66508 = 65202 . .
56110 . . 65202 . .
() .
(1.35)
= 56110 - 12979 + 997 = 44128 . .
= 65202 - 37730 + 593 = 28065 . .
, , 43724 . . 28469 . .
, () , () .
= 44128 + 348 4844 7489 339 = 31828 . .
= 28065 + 412 6028 5780 1046 = 16970 . .
, 31828 . . 16970 . .
( 1.6).
, , 132,57%, , , 116,20%.
290,70%. 44128 . . 28065 . .
1.6 - ()
| , % | |||||
| , . . | , % | , . . | , % | ||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|
|
|||||
| 1 . , , ( , ) | 5219643 | - | 6919636 | - | 132,57 |
| 2. , , | 4853766 | - | 6448170 | - | 132,85 |
| 3. , (.1- .2) | 365877 | - | 471466 | - | 128,86 |
| 4. | 272414 | - | 339756 | - | 124,72 |
| 5. | 37353 | - | 66508 | - | 178,05 |
| 6. () , (.3-(.4+.5) | 56110 | 127,15 | 65202 | 232,12 | 116,20 |
|
|
|||||
| 7. | 794 | 1,80 | 435 | 1,55 | 54,79 |
| 8. | 0 | - | 16 | 0,06 | - |
| 9. | 203 | 0,46 | 174 | 0,62 | 85,71 |
| 10. | 270072 | - | 18675 | - | 6,91 |
| 11. | 283051 | - | 56405 | - | 19,93 |
| 12. () (.10-.11) | -12979 | -29,41 | -37730 | -134,44 | 290,70 |
| 13. | 0 | - | 0 | - | - |
| 14. | 0 | - | 0 | - | - |
| 15. , (. 13-.14) | 0 | - | 0 | - | - |
|
16. () (.6+.7-.8+.12+.15) |
44128 | 100 | 28065 | 100 | 65,11 |
:
(1.36)
(1.37)
i , % - i - ( , , );
- , .;
i i- , %.
:
∆ = 65,11 100 = - 34,89%
:
∆ = 127,15/100 * (116,20 100) = 20,60
:
∆ = -29,41/100 * (290,70-100) = - 56,08
:
∆ = 0,46/100 * (85,71 100) = - 0,07
:
∆ = 1,8/100 * (54,79 100) = - 0,81
:
∆ =20,60 - 56,08 - 0,07 - 0,81 = - 36,36%
:
56,08%. 20,60%.
2.
2.1 " ""-"
- . , , , , , . , , , , , , () () .[1]
, , :
- , (, );
- ;
- , .
: ().
, , , () . , , - .
2.1.[14]
2.1 -
| 2008 | 2007 | |
|
( ), . : - % - % |
26402,4 4545,4 17,2 21857,0 82,8 |
18779,4 4431,5 23,6 14347,9 76,4 |
|
( ), . : - % |
6354,0 6272,1 98,7 |
5278,1 5217,2 98,8 |
| 32756,4 | 24057,5 | |
|
, . : - % - % - % |
114284 21818 19,1 532 0,5 91934 80,4 |
74630 9179 12,3 2276 3,0 63175 84,7 |
|
, . : - % - - % - - % - |
103769 27027 26,0 1415 1,4 75327 72,6 |
120941 27797 23,0 4194 3,5 88950 73,5 |
2.1 , 2008 2007, , 120941 . 103769 . . , 7623 . 2008 26402,4 . . - 82,8 % 76,4 % 2008 2007 . 98,7% 98,8 % 2008 2007 . 2.1 .[14] , . - 80,4 % 2008 , 19,1% 12,3 % 2008 2007 .
2.1
" ""-"
, : , .
, , :
1) (NPV) , :
NPV = IC CF, . . (2.1)
IC ( ) - .140 + .250 .1, . .;
CF .4, . .
NPV = (1490022 + 0) (-1601635) = 111613 . .
NPV > 1, .
2) (PI) .[7] , .. 1 :
PI = (IC / CF) * 100, % (2.2)
PI = (1490022 / -1601635)*100 = - 93,03 %.
, .. PI, -93,03%, 100%, .
3) (ARR) , :
ARR = [PN / (1/2* (IC RV))] * 100, % (1.3)
PN .190 .2, . .;
RV .120 .1, . .;
ARR = [16970 /( ½*(-1601635-559617)]*100 = - 0,785%
4) () , .
PP =Ic / PV, , (1.4)
PV - () ().
åPV S Ic, , . , , " ""-".
, :
- () :
= 16970 / 3063649 = 0,006;
- (..) :
.. = 16970 / 322907 = 0,055;
- (..) - :
.. = 16970 / 2740742 = 0,006;
- (..) - :
.. = 16970 / 559617 = 0,030;
- (..) - :
.. = 16970 / 876018 = 0,19.
, ( , 16970 . .). , ( " ""-") . , , " ""-" , . , ( 100% " ", ), , 1602893 . . ( ).
2.2
, , . () , . [4]
83 . :
-, , , . .
-, . .
-, , , . .
-, , , , .[5]
, : , . , . , . , .[14]
, . - , . :
1. . . .
2. . . .
3. , , - . , , -. .
4. , . . , , .
. , . 100 (). 2.2
. . , (-) ( ) 3,4 , . , -.[13]
, , - , . . , , . , .
2.2 - , 2008 .
| 1 | - | 100.0 | http://www.gov.spb.ru/ |
| 2 | 96.5 | http://www.investintomsk.com | |
| 3 | 95.8 | http://admtyumen.ru/economics/Investicii/ | |
| 4 | 95.6 | http://dips.kubangov.ru/ | |
| 5 | 95.4 | http://gov.cap.ru/main.asp?govid=24 | |
| 6 | 95.3 | http://www.rhlider.ru/ | |
| 7 | 95.3 | http://kareliainvest.ru/ | |
| 8 | 93.1 | http://www.bryanskobl.ru/ | |
| 9 | 92.5 | http://sverdl-invest.midural.ru/ | |
| 10 | 92.2 | http://admin.smolensk.ru/~ekon/invest/ | |
| 11 | 91.5 | http://www.ako.ru/Ekonomik/inv_ | |
| 12 | 91.2 | http://invest.ivanovo.ru/ | |
| 13 | 90.8 | http://www.kamchatka.gov.ru | |
| 14 | 90.3 | http://www.adm.yar.ru | |
| 15 | 89.8 | http://invest.ulgov.ru/ | |
| 16 | 89.7 | http://www.altairegion22.ru/ | |
| 17 | 89.6 | http://www.invest.ako.kirov.ru/content/ipot/ | |
| 18 | 89.6 | www.govvrn.ru | |
| 19 | 89.6 | http://www3.adm.nso.ru | |
| 20 | 89.3 | www.udmurt.ru | |
| 21 | 89.1 | http://econom.rkomi.ru/invest/inv.phtml | |
| 22 | 88.6 | http://www.invest.pskov.ru/ | |
| 23 | 88.2 | http://dips.kubangov.ru/ | |
| 24 | 86.5 | http://www.kaliningrad-rda.org/search/map.php | |
| 25 | 86.1 | http://www.adm.orel.ru/invest/ |
, , , . 2.2 . , . , 56 . -, , . 1,4 . , - : , . (13 ) (74 ). 2,1 , , . 23 88,2%, .
2.3
.[6] , , ( , , .), , , ( , - , .). , .
, , .[11]
, , . 6 ( 2.2), .
2.2 , ,
, 2007 . 38 % ( 2006 - 2,9 ), 2007. 32 600 . ., IPO . 2007 . 35 IPO, 1 200 . . 783 . .
. 2002 . 196 . . 107 . ., 11 1 %. . .[13]
. , , . 2001 2008 . 39 . 1257 . ., 32 . ( ) 2.3
2.3 (. .) (%)
01.01.2003. 01.01.2008. 99 607, - 75 465. 2007 . , , (68%). , 5 , .[3]
( 80 % 2005 2006 .) .
, ( 2007 .), , , 2.4.
2.4 2008 .
(51,2 . . ) , (48,5 . . ), (41 . . ) (29,5 . . ). , 10%, - 100% (, , ).
, .[6]
, : , . 2.5
2.5 ,
, . , , , . , :
- ;
- ;
- ;
- , ;
- ;
- .
, , , , .[11]
. , , ( , ), 2.3
, . , , .
2.3
| ( ) | ||||
| () | ||||
| ( ) | ( ) | |||
| ( ) | ( - ) | |||
| - | ( ) | |||
| ( ) | ( ) | |||
| ( ) | ||||
| () | ||||
| ( ) | (14 ) | ( 6 ) | (1 -4 ) |
(4 6 ) |
| ( ) | ||||
, , , . ; ( ); , , , . , , . , , 2.4
2.4
| / | |||
| 1. | . | ||
| 2. | |||
| 3. | , | , | |
| 4. | , , | ||
| 5. | , | ||
| 6. | , -, |
. -, 2008 . 75% . , . , .[10]
. . , , .
, " ""- ", , . , , , , ; ; ; . , , .
, , . , - .
, . . .
, " ""-" . , , . , ( 100% " ", ), , 1602893 . . ( ).
1. , . 02.01.2000 N 22-, 22.08.2004 N 122-, 02.02.2006 N 19-, 18.12.2006 N 232-, 24.07.2007 N 215-
2. .. . 2009. 4 (133). 59-65.
3. .. / . . . - .: , 2007. - 288 .
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