,,,
-
12
:
65-1
06 - 2052
..
:
..
2009
. , - - ( , ) .
9 . .
(), (N), (), (), (), (), (L) ( ) (), 1.1, 1.2.
1.1
|
(. .) |
N (. 2) |
(./ 2) |
(. ./) |
(./ 2) |
(. /) |
L (.) |
( . ) |
| 18,40 | 15,9 | 7,12 | 35,30 | 2,35 | 16,8 | 10,0 | 0,23 |
:
1. :
;
;
.
1.2
| ( ) | ||||||
| 0- | 1,00 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1- | 1,80 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2- | - | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 |
| 3- | - | 1,08 | 1,06 | 1,03 | 1,05 | 1,10 |
| 4- | - | 1,15 | 1,11 | 1,05 | 1,08 | 1,20 |
| 5- | - | 1,26 | 1,20 | 1,09 | 1,17 | 1,30 |
| 6- | - | 1,30 | 1,24 | 1,11 | 1,19 | 1,50 |
| 7- | - | 1,33 | 1,27 | 1,12 | 1,22 | 1,60 |
| 8- | - | 1,36 | 1,30 | 1,15 | 1,27 | 1,50 |
| 9- | - | 1,10 | 1,30 | 1,16 | 1,29 | 1,30 |
| 10- | - | 0,80 | 1,35 | 1,18 | 1,32 | 1,05 |
2. , , , .
70 % - , 30 % - .
5 ( ) 30 % . : 30 % ; 50 %, - 20 %.
3. .
. .
1. , , , . 1.1 . 1.2. 1.3.
t
1.3
|
- |
|
( |
- |
||||
| 0- | 18,40 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1- | 33,12 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2- | - | 15,90 | 7,12 | 35,30 | 2,35 | 16,80 | - |
| 3- | - | 17,17 | 7,55 | 36,36 | 2,47 | 18,48 | - |
| 4- | - | 18,29 | 7,90 | 37,07 | 2,54 | 20,16 | - |
| 5- | - | 20,03 | 8,54 | 38,48 | 2,75 | 21,84 | - |
| 6- | - | 20,67 | 8,83 | 39,18 | 2,80 | 25,20 | - |
| 7- | - | 21,15 | 9,04 | 39,54 | 2,87 | 26,88 | - |
| 8- | - | 21,62 | 9,26 | 40,60 | 2,98 | 25,20 | - |
| 9- | - | 17,49 | 9,26 | 40,95 | 3,03 | 21,84 | - |
| 10- | - | 12,72 | 9,61 | 41,65 | 3,10 | 17,64 | 10,00 |
(. .), t- :
- = 18,40 × 1,00 = 18,40 (. .);
1- = 18,40 × 1,08 = 33,12 (. .).
(. 2), t- :
2- = 15,90 × 1,00 = 15,90 (. 2);
3- = 15,90 × 1,08 = 17,17 (. 2);
4- = 15,90 × 1,15 = 18,29 (. 2);
5- = 15,90 × 1,26 = 20,03 (. 2);
6- = 15,90 × 1,30 = 20,67 (. 2);
7- = 15,90 × 1,33 = 21,15 (. 2);
8- = 15,90 × 1,36 = 21,62 (. 2);
9- = 15,90 × 1,10 = 17,49 (. 2);
10- = 15,90 × 0,80 = 12,72 (. 2).
(./ 2), t- :
2- = 7,12 × 1,00 = 7,12 (./ 2);
3- = 7,12 × 1,06 = 7,55 (./ 2);
4- = 7,12 × 1,11 = 7,90 (./ 2);
5- = 7,12 × 1,20 = 8,54 (./ 2);
6- = 7,12 × 1,24 = 8,83 (./ 2);
7- = 7,12 × 1,27 = 9,09 (./ 2);
8- = 7,12 × 1,30 = 9,26 (./ 2);
9- = 7,12 × 1,30 = 9,26 (./ 2);
10- = 7,12 × 1,35 = 9,61 (./ 2).
( ) (./), t- :
( ) 2- = 35,30 × 1,00 = 35,30 (./);
( ) 3- = 35,30 × 1,03 = 36,36 (./);
( ) 4- = 35,30 × 1,05 = 37,07 (./);
( ) 5- = 35,30 × 1,09 = 38,48 (./);
( ) 6- = 35,30 × 1,11 = 39,18 (./);
( ) 7- = 35,30 × 1,12 = 39,54 (./);
( ) 8- = 35,30 × 1,15 = 40,60 (./);
( ) 9- = 35,30 × 1,16 = 40,95
(./);
( ) 10- = 35,30 × 1,18 = 41,65
(./).
(./ 2), t- :
2- = 2,35 × 1,00 = 2,35 (./ 2);
3- = 2,35 × 1,05 = 2,47(./ 2);
4- = 2,35 × 1,08 = 2,54 (./ 2);
5- = 2,35 × 1,17 = 2,75 (./ 2);
6- = 2,35 × 1,19 = 2,80(./ 2);
7- = 2,35 × 1,22 = 2,87(./ 2);
8- = 2,35 × 1,27 = 2,98 (./ 2);
9- = 2,35 × 1,29 = 3,03(./ 2);
10- = 2,358 × 1,32 = 3,10 (./ 2).
(../), t- :
2- = 16,8 × 1,00 = 16,80 (../);
3- = 16,8 × 1,10 = 18,48 (../);
4- = 16,8 × 1,20 = 20,16 (../);
5- = 16,8 × 1,30 = 21,84 (../);
6- = 16,8 × 1,50 = 25,20 (../);
7- = 16,8 × 1,60 = 26,88 (../);
8- = 16,8 × 1,50 = 25,20 (../);
9- = 16,8 × 1,30 = 21,84 (../);
10- = 16,8 × 1,05 = 17,64 (../).
2. :
()
= + ,
N
();
();
N .
( 2- ) = 2,35 + 35,30 = 2,35 + 2,22 = 4,57
15,90
( 3- ) = 2,47 + 36,36 = 2,47 + 2,12 = 4,59
17,17
( 4- ) = 2,54 + 37,07 = 2,54 + 2,03 = 4,57
18,29
( 5- ) = 2,75 + 38,48 = 2,75 + 1,92 = 4,67
20,03
( 6- ) = 2,80 + 39,18 = 2,80 + 1,90 = 4,70
20,67
( 7- ) = 2,87 + 39,54 = 2,87 + 1,87 = 4,74
21,15
( 8- ) = 2,98 + 40,60 = 2,98 + 1,88 = 4,86
21,62
( 9- ) = 3,03 + 40,95 = 3,03 + 2,34 = 5,37
17,49
( 10- ) = 3,10 + 41,62 = 3,10 + 3,27 = 6,37.
12,72
3. .
() t-
= N × ( ),
N ;
;
.
( 2- ) = 15,90 × (7,12 4,57) = 40,55
( 3- ) = 17,17 × (7,55 4,59) = 50,82
( 4- ) = 18,29 × (7,90 4,57) = 60,91
( 5- ) = 20,03 × (8,54 4,67) = 77,52
( 6- ) = 20,67 × (8,83 4,70) = 85,37
( 7- ) = 21,15 × (9,04 4,74) = 90,95
( 8- ) = 21,62 × (9,26 4,86) = 95,13
( 9- ) = 17,49 × (9,26 5,37) = 68,04
( 10- ) = 12,72 × (9,61 6,37) = 41,21.
4. t- :
()
= ,
;
.
( 2- ) = 40,55 16,80 = 23,75
( 3- ) = 50,82 18,48 = 32,34
( 4- ) = 60,91 20,16 = 40,75
( 5- ) = 77,52 21,84 = 55,68
( 6- ) = 85,37 25,20 = 60,17
( 7- ) = 90,95 26,88 = 64,07
( 8- ) = 95,13 25,20 = 69,93
( 9- ) = 68,04 21,84 = 46,2
( 10- ) = 41,21 17,64 = 23,57.
, 1.4.
1.4
| () (.) | (), ..) | () (..) | |
| 0- | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| 1- | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| 2- | 4,57 | 40,55 | 23,75 |
| 3- | 4,59 | 50,82 | 32,34 |
| 4- | 4,57 | 60,91 | 40,75 |
| 5- | 4,67 | 77,52 | 55,68 |
| 6- | 4,70 | 85,37 | 60,17 |
| 7- | 4,74 | 90,95 | 64,07 |
| 8- | 4,86 | 95,13 | 69,93 |
| 9- | 5,37 | 68,04 | 46,20 |
| 10- | 6,37 | 41,21 | 23,57 |
5. . .
) t- (. 1.5. .1 = . 2 + . 3).
) - (. 1. 5. . 4. = .5).
) () (. 1.5 . 6 = . 1 . 4).
) () (. 1.5 . 7). 0- , :
t = + t-1,
;
t-1 ;
t .
(cash-flow)
1.5
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||
| 1 |
|
- | - | 23,8 | 32,3 | 40,8 | 55,7 | 60,2 | 64,1 | 70,0 | 46,2 | 33,6 |
| 2 | - - |
- |
- | 23,8 | 32,3 | 40,8 | 55,7 | 60,2 | 64,1 | 70,0 | 46,2 | 23,6 |
| 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 10,0 |
| 4 |
|
18,4 | 33,12 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | 18,4 | 33,12 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| 6 | -18,4 | -33,12 | 23,8 | 32,3 | 40,8 | 55,7 | 60,2 | 64,1 | 70,0 | 46,2 | 33,6 | |
| 7 | - - | -18,4 | -51,5 | -27,7 | 4,6 | 45,4 | 101,1 | 161,3 | 225,4 | 295,4 | 341,6 | 371,2 |
) (NPV) ( ) .
( )
S = Σ t 1 ,
t=0 t
(1+)
S ;
.
t t- ;
;
S = 23,8 + 32,3 + 40,8 + 55,7 + 60,2 + 64,1 + 70,0 + 46,2 + 23,6
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23)
= 126,66
T
= Σ Kt × 1 ,
t=0 t
(1+)
Kt t-
= 18,4 + 33,12 = 18,40 + 26,93 = 45,33 (. .)
0 1
(1+0,23) (1+0,23)
:
Ҡ T
NPV = Σ t × 1 - Σ t × 1 .
t=0 t t=0 t
(1+E) (1+E)
NPV = 126,66 45,33 = 81,33 (. .)
6.
= S ,
K
= 126,66 / 45,33 = 2,79 > 1 ,
7. ( IRR), - :
Ҡ T
Σ t × 1 = Σ Kt × 1 ,
t=0 t t=0 t
(1+E) (1+E)
T
Σ t × 1 - Σ Kt × 1 = 0 ,
t=0 t t=0 t
(1+E) (1+E)
23,8 + 32,3 + 40,8 + 55,7 + 60,2 + 64,1 + 70,0 + 46,2 +
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
(1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23)
+ 23,6 = 18,4 + 33,12 .
10 0 1
(1+0,23) (1+0,23) (1+0,23)
. , .
= 0,5576 ≈ 0,56 %
= 56 % > = 0,23 % , , , .
.
1.
( ).
(0- ) 18,4 .. (5,52 .. 12,88 .. ). (1- ) 33,12 .. (9,94 .. 23,18 .. ).
2.
, .. 3- 30 % . 10,81 ..
50 % 20 % 18,03 . . 7,21 . . . .
3.
, 3,86 .., - 10,81 .., 7,57 . . 2,16 . .
. 1.6
1.6
|
,
(30 %) |
(70 %) |
|
(30 % ) |
(..) |
|||||
| % | .. | ||||||||
| 0 | 5,52 | 12,88 | - | - | - | 5,52 | 12,88 | - | - |
| 1 | 9,93 | 23,17 | - | - | - | 9,93 | 36,05 | 3,86 | -3,86 |
| 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 36,05 | 10,81 | 13,00 |
| 3 | - | - | 30 | 3,86 | 6,95 | 10,81 | 25,24 | 10,81 | 21,49 |
| 4 | - | - | 50 | 6,44 | 11,59 | 18,03 | 7,21 | 7,57 | 33,23 |
| 5 | - | - | 20 | 2,58 | 4,63 | 7,21 | - | 2,16 | 53,54 |
| 6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 60,20 |
| 7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 64,10 |
| 8 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 70,00 |
| 9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 46,20 |
| 10 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 33,60 |
4. ( ):
() (.7) (. 10)
S = -3,86 + 13,00 + 21,49 + 33,23 + 53,54 + 60,20 + 64,10 + 70,00 + 46,20 + 33,60 =
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23)
= -3,14 + 8,61 + 11,55 + 14,51 + 18,99 + 17,40 + 15,05 + 13,36 + 7,17 + 4,24 = 107,74
= 5,52 + 9,93 + 10,81 + 18,03 + 7,21 = 5,52 + 8,07 + 5,81 + 7,87 + 2,56 = 29,83
0 1 3 4 5
(1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23) (1,23)
NPV = S K;
NPV = 107,74 29,83 = 77,91.
= S ;
K
= 107,74 = 3,61 > 0 .
29,83
5.
( ):
= 0,8253 83 %,
= 83 % > = 56 %.
:
1. .
2. , .
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