. , , ,

,,,

. .

:

(204 )

2006 .

, .

 

:

1.        

2.         , . , ,

3.         , , : .

: ) , ; ) .

5 :

1)     

2)     

3)     

4)     

5)     

:

www.banks-rate.ru www.fundz.ru www.investfunds.ru. , 5-25 , . .

:

Ø 

Ø 

Ø  ,

Ø 

Ø 

Ø 

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Ø 

210 .

:

, .

, , , 2 . -500 . .

. 188 .

, :

(kredkart). , , 1 0 .

, (chastn urid budjet). 1, . (nada nadb nadc nadd). 1, . ++, +, . . 10 4.

(chakt)

(likvakt)

(rabakt)

, (kredkommorg)

(sobkap)

(factprib)

(srurlits)

(srchlits)

(ustfond)

(sumobaz)

(obazdovos)

(srbudjetorg)

(privsrdrbank)

.

- :

sobkap

+

privsrdrbank

-

likvakt

+

sumobaz

+

rabakt

+

obazdovos

-

kredkommorg

-

chakt

+

srurlits

+

ustfond

+

srchlits

+

nadc nadd

+

kredkart

+

nadb

 +

nada

+

nadd

 -

, :

 

FACTPRIB CHASTN CHAKT C KREDKART KREDKOMMORG LIKVAKT NADA NADB NADC OBAZDOVOS PRIVSRDRBANK RABAKT SOBKAP SRBUDJETORG SRCHLITS SRURLITS SUMOBAZ URID USTFOND

Dependent Variable: FACTPRIB

Method: Least Squares

Date: 05/11/06 Time: 14:26

Sample: 1 188

Included observations: 188

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

CHASTN

-38562.44

403146.5

-0.095654

0.9239

CHAKT

0.000390

0.017444

0.022374

0.9822

C

-31031.80

455112.7

-0.068185

0.9457

KREDKART

-126509.7

122003.9

-1.036931

0.3012

KREDKOMMORG

-0.043066

0.010004

-4.304699

0.0000

LIKVAKT

-0.058559

0.024442

-2.395787

0.0177

NADA

155861.6

237730.7

0.655623

0.5130

NADB

37945.04

224776.6

0.168812

0.8661

NADC

24925.58

218431.4

0.114112

0.9093

OBAZDOVOS

0.021043

0.011016

1.910313

0.0578

PRIVSRDRBANK

0.011666

0.015564

0.749547

0.4546

RABAKT

-0.000148

0.012834

-0.011567

0.9908

SOBKAP

0.529484

0.042067

12.58669

0.0000

SRBUDJETORG

-0.008079

0.017182

-0.470193

0.6388

SRCHLITS

0.003690

0.020046

0.184087

0.8542

SRURLITS

-0.034925

0.017205

-2.029897

0.0439

SUMOBAZ

0.000706

0.002675

0.263889

0.7922

URID

-17825.14

402456.1

-0.044291

0.9647

USTFOND

-0.403681

0.038156

-10.57969

0.0000

R-squared

0.667580

Mean dependent var

378819.5

Adjusted R-squared

0.632174

S.D. dependent var

703430.8

S.E. of regression

426621.2

Akaike info criterion

28.86077

Sum squared resid

3.08E+13

Schwarz criterion

29.18785

Log likelihood

-2693.912

F-statistic

18.85515

Durbin-Watson stat

2.081729

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

: SOBKAP, NADA, NADB, KREDKOMMORG, SUMOBAZ, CHAKT. , ; , , (, , ).

, , F- . 13 19 . Sum squared resid (3.08E+13) (426621.2).

:

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

F-statistic

5.439868

Probability

0.000000

Obs*R-squared

95.81897

Probability

0.000000

no cross terms , 0% .. , .

: CHASTN, CHAKT, RABAKT, PRIVSRDRBANK, NADA, NADB, NADC, SUMOBAZ.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

-37696.29

75414.85

-0.499852

0.6178

KREDKART

-142891.6

117257.7

-1.218612

0.2246

KREDKOMMORG

-0.038125

0.006146

-6.202821

0.0000

LIKVAKT

-0.075415

0.018988

-3.971669

0.0001

OBAZDOVOS

0.028094

0.008035

3.496584

0.0006

SOBKAP

0.545392

0.035577

15.33007

0.0000

SRBUDJETORG

-0.003419

0.001680

-2.035163

0.0433

SRCHLITS

0.000826

0.014256

0.057910

0.9539

SRURLITS

-0.034634

0.009259

-3.740397

0.0002

URID

27537.09

91438.25

0.301155

0.7636

USTFOND

-0.420058

0.032421

-12.95644

0.0000

R-squared

0.659513

Mean dependent var

378819.5

Adjusted R-squared

0.640277

S.D. dependent var

703430.8

S.E. of regression

421896.1

Akaike info criterion

28.79963

Sum squared resid

3.15E+13

Schwarz criterion

28.98900

Log likelihood

-2696.166

F-statistic

34.28444

Durbin-Watson stat

2.050497

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

, F- . .

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

F-statistic

7.432828

Probability

0.000000

Obs*R-squared

83.06950

Probability

0.000000

- .

, .

:

, , , . .

log(FACTPRIB) C log(CHAKT) CHASTN KREDKART log(KREDKOMMORG) log(LIKVAKT) NADA NADB NADC log(OBAZDOVOS) log(PRIVSRDRBANK) log(RABAKT) log(SOBKAP) log(SRBUDJETORG) log(SRCHLITS) log(SRURLITS) log(SUMOBAZ) URID log(USTFOND)

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

-5.860698

2.403132

-2.438775

0.0168

LOG(CHAKT)

0.009676

0.818880

0.011816

0.9906

CHASTN

0.794260

0.914271

0.868736

0.3874

KREDKART

-0.353906

0.260594

-1.358074

0.1780

LOG(KREDKOMMORG)

-0.649195

0.243334

-2.667920

0.0091

LOG(LIKVAKT)

0.105788

0.149088

0.709568

0.4799

NADA

1.040718

0.587033

1.772844

0.0798

NADB

1.198949

0.557710

2.149770

0.0344

NADC

0.670819

0.527920

1.270682

0.2073

LOG(OBAZDOVOS)

-0.206006

0.252990

-0.814285

0.4178

LOG(PRIVSRDRBANK)

-0.017250

0.044849

-0.384634

0.7015

LOG(RABAKT)

0.295992

0.605443

0.488884

0.6262

LOG(SOBKAP)

1.136590

0.280941

4.045649

0.0001

LOG(SRBUDJETORG)

-0.019563

0.027180

-0.719778

0.4736

LOG(SRCHLITS)

0.105197

0.146548

0.717831

0.4748

LOG(SRURLITS)

0.301929

0.301222

1.002349

0.3190

LOG(SUMOBAZ)

0.179709

0.427042

0.420822

0.6749

URID

0.439510

0.907740

0.484181

0.6295

LOG(USTFOND)

-0.134627

0.077598

-1.734922

0.0864

R-squared

0.758589

Mean dependent var

11.91081

Adjusted R-squared

0.707466

S.D. dependent var

1.371162

S.E. of regression

0.741612

Akaike info criterion

2.403663

Sum squared resid

46.74897

Schwarz criterion

2.886773

Log likelihood

-105.9905

F-statistic

14.83869

Durbin-Watson stat

2.210531

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

. . . NADB NADA ( ). .

3, .

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

-5.851245

2.251837

-2.598432

0.0110

LOG(CHAKT)

0.567572

0.310173

1.829855

0.0706

KREDKART

-0.362751

0.256686

-1.413214

0.1611

LOG(KREDKOMMORG)

-0.590479

0.168095

-3.512759

0.0007

LOG(LIKVAKT)

0.033848

0.133881

0.252823

0.8010

NADA

0.986436

0.551014

1.790218

0.0768

NADB

1.182327

0.506423

2.334661

0.0218

NADC

0.664920

0.485634

1.369181

0.1744

LOG(OBAZDOVOS)

-0.170145

0.213904

-0.795424

0.4285

LOG(PRIVSRDRBANK)

-0.033436

0.042468

-0.787321

0.4332

LOG(SOBKAP)

1.103629

0.266809

4.136404

0.0001

LOG(SRBUDJETORG)

-0.012144

0.024270

-0.500383

0.6180

LOG(SRCHLITS)

0.235952

0.095926

2.459730

0.0158

LOG(SRURLITS)

0.122124

0.199038

0.613573

0.5411

LOG(USTFOND)

-0.126844

0.075840

-1.672528

0.0979

R-squared

0.753058

Mean dependent var

11.91081

Adjusted R-squared

0.714213

S.D. dependent var

1.371162

S.E. of regression

0.733010

Akaike info criterion

2.349391

Sum squared resid

47.81997

Schwarz criterion

2.730794

Log likelihood

-107.1683

F-statistic

19.38634

Durbin-Watson stat

2.099624

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

4- , . , (URID, CHASTN, BUDJET) .

:

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

F-statistic

1.551641

Probability

0.075856

Obs*R-squared

33.31828

Probability

0.097534

, 7,5% . .

:

 

LOG(FACTPRIB) C CHAKT KREDKART KREDKOMMORG LIKVAKT NADA NADB NADC OBAZDOVOS PRIVSRDRBANK RABAKT SOBKAP SRBUDJETORG SRCHLITS SRURLITS SUMOBAZ USTFOND

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

10.65427

0.454848

23.42379

0.0000

CHAKT

6.59E-08

3.54E-08

1.860021

0.0646

KREDKART

-0.089389

0.250501

-0.356840

0.7216

KREDKOMMORG

-3.05E-08

1.87E-08

-1.625173

0.1060

LIKVAKT

-9.53E-08

4.57E-08

-2.083041

0.0387

NADA

1.455838

0.498505

2.920411

0.0040

NADB

1.020678

0.477091

2.139378

0.0338

NADC

0.215731

0.463742

0.465195

0.6424

OBAZDOVOS

1.06E-08

2.07E-08

0.510300

0.6105

PRIVSRDRBANK

5.96E-09

3.27E-08

0.182004

0.8558

RABAKT

-5.15E-08

2.37E-08

-2.172894

0.0312

SOBKAP

5.80E-07

8.89E-08

6.527722

0.0000

SRBUDJETORG

4.47E-08

2.94E-08

1.523607

0.1294

SRCHLITS

-6.83E-09

3.64E-08

-0.187774

0.8513

SRURLITS

-8.05E-08

3.60E-08

-2.234290

0.0268

USTFOND

-4.88E-07

7.55E-08

-6.463891

0.0000

R-squared

0.600377

Mean dependent var

11.87388

Adjusted R-squared

0.565526

S.D. dependent var

1.375794

S.E. of regression

0.906850

Akaike info criterion

2.723586

Sum squared resid

141.4488

Schwarz criterion

2.999028

Log likelihood

-240.0171

F-statistic

17.22703

Durbin-Watson stat

2.002770

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

- , . .

:

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

F-statistic

0.670657

Probability

0.884238

Obs*R-squared

18.37158

Probability

0.861839

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

F-statistic

0.504944

Probability

0.999452

Obs*R-squared

87.11601

Probability

0.985155

: 88% (no cross terms) 99,9% (cross terms) . .

-:

. 60 60 RSS.

60

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

9.478872

0.848203

11.17524

0.0000

CHAKT

6.32E-08

4.34E-07

0.145570

0.8851

KREDKART

0.036231

0.873700

0.041468

0.9672

KREDKOMMORG

-1.28E-07

2.32E-07

-0.551190

0.5851

LIKVAKT

-1.57E-07

4.19E-07

-0.375388

0.7097

OBAZDOVOS

1.80E-07

9.24E-08

1.945687

0.0600

PRIVSRDRBANK

2.84E-08

3.68E-07

0.077162

0.9389

RABAKT

8.19E-08

3.34E-07

0.245401

0.8076

SOBKAP

1.43E-06

1.19E-06

1.203372

0.2371

SRBUDJETORG

-1.00E-06

5.39E-07

-1.860638

0.0715

SRCHLITS

2.74E-07

3.45E-07

0.793853

0.4328

SRURLITS

4.06E-08

3.54E-07

0.114816

0.9093

USTFOND

-1.26E-06

8.64E-07

-1.460503

0.1533

R-squared

0.480953

Mean dependent var

10.72953

Adjusted R-squared

0.251962

S.D.dependent var

1.054286

S.E. of regression

0.911844

Akaike info criterion

2.907641

Sum squared resid

28.26960

Schwarz criterion

3.519488

Log likelihood

-56.69102

F-statistic

2.100313

Durbin-Watson stat

1.641794

Prob(F-statistic)

0.036209

60 .

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

8.188369

0.668328

12.25203

0.0000

CHAKT

6.28E-07

3.52E-07

1.786155

0.0805

KREDKART

-0.193628

0.722050

-0.268164

0.7897

KREDKOMMORG

-1.46E-07

1.50E-07

-0.972834

0.3356

LIKVAKT

-6.09E-08

3.69E-07

-0.164867

0.8698

OBAZDOVOS

-8.61E-08

2.08E-07

-0.413992

0.6808

PRIVSRDRBANK

-9.58E-08

3.17E-07

-0.302349

0.7637

RABAKT

-4.60E-08

2.44E-07

-0.188680

0.8512

SOBKAP

7.02E-07

3.16E-07

2.223895

0.0310

SRBUDJETORG

-2.78E-07

5.73E-07

-0.485100

0.6299

SRCHLITS

4.39E-08

3.04E-07

0.144302

0.8859

SRURLITS

3.53E-08

2.63E-07

0.134035

0.8939

USTFOND

-4.27E-07

3.39E-07

-1.258141

0.2146

R-squared

0.624625

Mean dependent var

10.97100

Adjusted R-squared

0.528785

S.D. dependent var

1.177533

S.E. of regression

0.808319

Akaike info criterion

2.601416

Sum squared resid

30.70884

Schwarz criterion

3.055191

Log likelihood

-65.04249

F-statistic

6.517345

Durbin-Watson stat

1.680326

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000001

RSS1=28.26960 RSS2=30.70884

30.70884/28.26960=1,08628<

-

Excel - .

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

-1.742633

0.205461

-8.481573

0.0000

CHAKT

5.06E-09

5.23E-08

0.096786

0.9230

KREDKART

-0.056200

0.557820

-0.100749

0.9199

KREDKOMMORG

2.59E-09

3.18E-08

0.081643

0.9350

LIKVAKT

5.68E-08

5.60E-08

1.014630

0.3117

OBAZDOVOS

1.01E-08

3.15E-08

0.320031

0.7493

PRIVSRDRBANK

1.79E-08

5.69E-08

0.314465

0.7535

RABAKT

1.30E-09

4.29E-08

0.030329

0.9758

SOBKAP

-7.73E-08

1.00E-07

-0.770216

0.4422

SRBUDJETORG

-1.43E-08

5.00E-08

-0.285660

0.7755

SRCHLITS

-7.37E-09

4.11E-08

-0.179269

0.8579

SRURLITS

-1.65E-08

4.77E-08

-0.345334

0.7303

USTFOND

1.58E-08

9.13E-08

0.173240

0.8627

R-squared

0.110353

Mean dependent var

-1.745385

Adjusted R-squared

0.049349

S.D. dependent var

2.368217

S.E. of regression

2.309043

Akaike info criterion

4.578185

Sum squared resid

933.0438

Schwarz criterion

4.801982

Log likelihood

-417.3494

F-statistic

1.608940

Durbin-Watson stat

1.934784

Prob(F-statistic)

0.049826

F- c :

Excel.

2,58, 1% .

, , .

 

.

SHAPE * MERGEFORMAT

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5.00

-3.75

-2.50

-1.25

0.00

1.25

2.50

Series: Residuals

Sample 1 188

Observations 179

Mean

1.21E-15

Median

-0.069035

Maximum

3.128144

Minimum

-5.422778

Std. Dev.

1.164594

Skewness

-0.483708

Kurtosis

4.819885

Jarque-Bera

31.68207

Probability

0.000000

, 100% . , , .

F- , NADB NADC :

Null Hypothesis:

C(6)=C(7)

F-statistic

29.46654

Probability

0.000000

Chi-square

29.46654

Probability

0.000000

, .

BUDJET

CHAKT

CHASTN

FACTPRIB

KREDKART

KREDKOMMORG

Mean

0.011173

45416161

0.234637

943286.7

0.111732

20103364

Median

0.000000

10558716

0.000000

149009.0

0.000000

4208453.

Maximum

1.000000

2.24E+09

1.000000

41825923

1.000000

1.19E+09

Minimum

0.000000

258986.0

0.000000

569.0000

0.000000

0.000000

Std. Dev.

0.105406

1.94E+08

0.424960

3395582.

0.315920

92998103

Skewness

9.301145

9.369413

1.252387

10.05142

2.464911

11.29334

Kurtosis

87.51130

99.21153

2.568474

119.1300

7.075786

140.5772

Jarque-Bera

55849.53

71658.19

48.18166

103598.5

305.1590

144972.4

Probability

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

Observations

179

179

179

179

179

179

LIKVAKT

NADA

NADB

NADC

NADD

OBAZDOVOS

PRIVSRDRBANK

2597841.

0.290503

0.279330

0.430168

0.000000

13826478

10410316

812688.0

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

3206633.

910095.0

50530293

1.000000

1.000000

1.000000

0.000000

4.91E+08

9.51E+08

-12694.00

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

72320.00

0.000000

6391327.

0.455268

0.449928

0.496488

0.000000

52093055

72084529

5.284194

0.922907

0.983665

0.282094

NA

8.091847

12.54730

34.43145

1.851757

1.967597

1.079577

NA

71.95619

163.7638

8201.383

35.24427

36.81615

29.88056

NA

37417.48

197457.4

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

NA

0.000000

0.000000

179

179

179

179

179

179

179

RABAKT

RESID

SOBKAP

SRBUDJETORG

SRCHLITS

SRURLITS

SUMOBAZ

49591078

1.96E-15

5086118.

12937186

11736618

11842079

78545055

7843825.

0.020060

1653120.

198.0000

1764168.

3208298.

10157921

3.46E+09

2.843090

2.35E+08

2.16E+09

1.30E+09

4.36E+08

4.42E+09

0.000000

-4.833148

55417.00

0.000000

0.000000

22728.00

72410.00

2.90E+08

1.001457

18743680

1.61E+08

97328387

37860723

4.39E+08

10.29724

-0.566494

10.69872

13.24926

13.08312

8.583605

8.986682

115.0327

5.577071

128.3168

176.6951

173.7022

90.92993

84.26849

96775.25

59.10695

120542.6

230254.8

222436.7

59863.46

51668.42

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

179

179

179

179

179

179

179

URID

USTFOND

0.754190

1662227.

1.000000

650000.0

1.000000

42137236

0.000000

1000.000

0.431774

4033349.

-1.180723

7.118276

2.394108

64.45952

44.32888

29683.81

0.000000

0.000000

179

179

, :

, 1,5 . , 5 . , , 900 . .

:

Ø  29%

Ø  28%

Ø  43%

Ø  , (D)

11% , , .

, :

BUDJET

CHAKT

CHASTN

FACTPRIB

BUDJET

1.000000

0.302430

-0.058856

0.015638

CHAKT

0.302430

1.000000

0.056159

0.867114

CHASTN

-0.058856

0.056159

1.000000

0.041274

FACTPRIB

0.015638

0.867114

0.041274

1.000000

KREDKART

-0.037700

0.237967

-0.028988

0.231355

KREDKOMMORG

0.092339

0.948963

0.078933

0.936808

LIKVAKT

0.395387

0.739397

-0.039793

0.619686

NADA

0.166123

0.277850

-0.209105

0.291487

NADB

-0.066179

-0.086414

0.066644

-0.086220

NADC

-0.092358

-0.176471

0.131350

-0.189153

OBAZDOVOS

0.504815

0.952650

0.019641

0.732387

PRIVSRDRBANK

0.688888

0.545719

-0.053954

0.152520

RABAKT

0.626489

0.803419

-0.000526

0.461946

RESID

-0.017407

4.01E-15

0.038962

0.127820

SOBKAP

0.022119

0.906109

0.054888

0.945773

SRBUDJETORG

0.720894

0.450324

-0.040976

0.039138

SRCHLITS

-0.007118

0.871539

0.138130

0.922463

SRURLITS

0.004718

0.871707

0.019779

0.916901

SUMOBAZ

0.457713

0.961291

0.051250

0.741047

URID

-0.186195

-0.129103

-0.969851

-0.044440

USTFOND

-0.008173

0.203648

-0.146909

0.172161

, , . . , . , , .

, . .

, .

, , , , .

()

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

10.65427

0.454848

23.42379

0.0000

CHAKT

6.59E-08

3.54E-08

1.860021

0.0646

KREDKART

-0.089389

0.250501

-0.356840

0.7216

KREDKOMMORG

-3.05E-08

1.87E-08

-1.625173

0.1060

LIKVAKT

-9.53E-08

4.57E-08

-2.083041

0.0387

NADA

1.455838

0.498505

2.920411

0.0040

NADB

1.020678

0.477091

2.139378

0.0338

NADC

0.215731

0.463742

0.465195

0.6424

OBAZDOVOS

1.06E-08

2.07E-08

0.510300

0.6105

PRIVSRDRBANK

5.96E-09

3.27E-08

0.182004

0.8558

RABAKT

-5.15E-08

2.37E-08

-2.172894

0.0312

SOBKAP

5.80E-07

8.89E-08

6.527722

0.0000

SRBUDJETORG

4.47E-08

2.94E-08

1.523607

0.1294

SRCHLITS

-6.83E-09

3.64E-08

-0.187774

0.8513

SRURLITS

-8.05E-08

3.60E-08

-2.234290

0.0268

USTFOND

-4.88E-07

7.55E-08

-6.463891

0.0000

R-squared

0.600377

Mean dependent var

11.87388

Adjusted R-squared

0.565526

S.D. dependent var

1.375794

S.E. of regression

0.906850

Akaike info criterion

2.723586

( ):

Ø  CHAKT , 100 . , 6,6%.

Ø  (LIKVAKT) 100 . 9,5%

Ø  , 100 . (RABAKT) 5,1%

Ø  10 . 5,8%

Ø  100 . 8%

Ø  -, : D. C 21,5%, B- 102%, 145,5%.

. , :

Ø ,

Ø

Ø , .. , F-, ESS

Ø

. . : (204 ) 2006 .

 

 

 

! , , , .
. , :